May 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

Get your picks in for round 2 folks l don't want to defeat skipper Grumps in another contest enter in the Sports thread,
thank you for your participation l'm hoping for another contest win over skipper Gumps.

[SouthSardiswx]

[PortKells]

Cloud watching season

A1EBBE6C-25EE-4FE3-8E70-1355BE67696F.jpeg

[SouthSardiswx]

C'mon Jr man & Glace enter the playoff predictions for round 2 or anyone else.

[Hawk]

Cloud watching season

A1EBBE6C-25EE-4FE3-8E70-1355BE67696F.jpeg

There have been many days of tremendous clouds like these the last few weeks from the troffs

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (3).png

-------------------------------------------------------

20240507134754-4e7ac529242d9e78d41449c3dc18f1ca33aab3cd.png

20240507134741-92407e3aedf64cc731ee07fe65f66b9360683771.png

[stuffradio]

May 4 inches of rain?

gfs_apcpn_nwus_61.png

[stuffradio]

A tree fell in Stanley Park due to the wind this afternoon and blocked Lions Gate bridge both directions.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

A tree fell in Stanley Park due to the wind this afternoon and blocked Lions Gate bridge both directions.

Localized wind events seem to be a theme recently. Just coming back from a trip to Seattle and Sunday was their windy day.

[stuffradio]

I saw a map showing that the snowfall trend from October to April from the last 50 years for the PNW and SW BC is for above normal snowfall.

[Typeing3]

I saw a map showing that the snowfall trend from October to April from the last 50 years for the PNW and SW BC is for above normal snowfall.

A refresher on annual snowfall over the years in Vancouver:

Decadal snowfall in Vancouver


1900s
1900: 32.5cm
1901: 128.5cm
1902: 22.9cm
1903: 45.2cm
1904: 80.1cm
1905: 7.6cm
1906: 23.7cm
1907: 58.7cm
1908: 8.4cm
1909: 49.6cm
Total snowfall 1900s: 457.2cm
Annual average snowfall 1900s: 45.7cm


1910s
1910: 62cm
1911: 162.1cm
1912: 23.8cm
1913: 166.8cm
1914: 44.7cm
1915: 7.6cm
1916: 207.8cm
1917: 185.6cm
1918: 108.2cm
1919: 82.6cm
Total snowfall 1910s: 1051.2cm
Annual average snowfall 1910s: 105.1cm


1920s
1920: 15.1cm
1921: 62.7cm
1922: 120.7cm
1923: 111.9cm
1924: 32.3cm
1925: 12.4cm
1926: 47.2cm
1927: 132.6cm
1928: 8.4cm
1929: 107.7cm
Total snowfall 1920s: 651cm
Annual average snowfall 1920s: 65.1cm


1930s
1930: 30.5cm
1931: 17.3cm
1932: 73.9cm
1933: 124.5cm
1934: 40.6cm
1935: 110.3cm
1936: 64.8cm
1937: 171.4cm
1938: 58.1cm
1939: 19.3cm
Total snowfall 1930s: 710.7cm
Annual average snowfall 1930s: 71.1cm


1940s
1940: 11.6cm
1941: 2.3cm
1942: 27.6cm
1943: 41.4cm
1944: 8.9cm
1945: 10.3cm
1946: 35.9cm
1947: 38.2cm
1948: 62.5cm
1949: 82.8cm
Total snowfall 1940s: 321.5cm
Annual average snowfall 1940s: 32.2cm


1950s
1950: 106.9cm
1951: 123.1cm
1952: 41.4cm
1953: 8.6cm
1954: 81.3cm
1955: 55.9cm
1956: 62cm
1957: 62.2cm
1958: 33.5cm
1959: 26.2cm
Total snowfall 1950s: 601.1cm
Annual average snowfall 1950s: 60.1cm


1960s
1960: 38.1cm
1961: 33.5cm
1962: 92cm
1963: 14.2cm
1964: 106.7cm
1965: 86.4cm
1966: 69.9cm
1967: 33cm
1968: 71.9cm
1969: 71.4cm
Total snowfall 1960s: 617.1cm
Annual average snowfall 1960s: 61.7cm


1970s
1970: 40.3cm
1971: 242.6cm
1972: 58.7cm
1973: 29.4cm
1974: 40.7cm
1975: 119cm
1976: 37.9cm
1977: 30.8cm
1978: 43.5cm
1979: 10.1cm
Total snowfall 1970s: 653cm
Annual average snowfall 1970s: 65.3cm


1980s
1980: 45.9cm
1981: 22.6cm
1982: 60.8cm
1983: 12cm
1984: 38.6cm
1985: 56.7cm
1986: 17.6cm
1987: 8.2cm
1988: 11.4cm
1989: 38.6cm
Total snowfall 1980s: 312.4cm
Annual average snowfall 1980s: 31.2cm


1990s
1990: 102cm
1991: 67.4cm
1992: 35cm
1993: 33.3cm
1994: 18.6cm
1995: 22cm
1996: 130.4cm
1997: 8cm
1998: 48.9cm
1999: 4.4cm
Total snowfall 1990s: 470cm
Annual average snowfall 1990s: 47.0cm


2000s
2000: 33.8cm
2001: 18.2cm
2002: 48.9cm
2003: 18.5cm
2004: 8.1cm
2005: 29cm
2006: 44.8cm
2007: 37.7cm
2008: 109cm
2009: 26.4cm
Total snowfall 2000s: 374.4cm
Annual average snowfall 2000s: 37.4cm


2010s
2010: 16.8cm
2011: 24.1cm
2012: 27.2cm
2013: 11.6cm
2014: 25.8cm
2015: Trace
2016: 28.4cm
2017: 43.4cm
2018: 25.8cm
2019: 32.2cm
Total snowfall 2010s: 235.3cm
Annual average snowfall 2010s: 23.5cm


2020s
2020: 45.4cm
2021: 48.3cm
2022: 73cm
2023: 29.7cm
Total snowfall 2020s: 196.4cm
Annual average snowfall 2020s: 49.1cm




Data: Vancouver PMO (1900-1937) + YVR (1938-present)

[Hawk]

A refresher on annual snowfall over the years in Vancouver:

Decadal snowfall in Vancouver


Data: Vancouver PMO (1900-1937) + YVR (1938-present)

Great work buttee. These numbers show how sad the snow years have been since 1997, with the exception of 2008. Which compared to epic years in the last century, pales in comparison to some of those monster totals anyways. Thats 27 years of snow futility. Maybe this years LN will bury us like one of those years in the past?

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Great work buttee. These numbers show how sad the snow years have been since 1997, with the exception of 2008. Which compared to epic years in the last century, pales in comparison to some of those monster totals anyways. Thats 27 years of snow futility. Maybe this years LN will bury us like one of those years in the past?

Makes the 2020’s look pretty good, actually. Have to go back to the 1970’s to find a decade that tops the current one. Hopefully the trend continues. There’s been three consecutive winters with 20+ cm snowfall events IMBY. Not too shabby!

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

On the weekend front, the latest EC forecast now says Sunday night and Monday look mostly clear. Bodes well for being able to see an aurora display (severe geomagnetic storm is forecast, and we are at the point in the solar cycle when such things are the most likely).

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Space Weather Message Code: WATA99
Serial Number: 6
Issue Time: 2024 May 09 1722 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G4 or Greater Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
May 10: G1 (Minor) May 11: G4 (Severe) May 12: G2 (Moderate)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.

Source: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aler ... d-warnings