December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

[AbbyJr]

We can get stinkers even in a cold phase of the PDO. Case in point, 1999-2000 and 2000‐01 La Nina's occurred during negative PDO.

Additionally, the PDO was still positive in 2016-17 and that didn't stop a cold winter from unfolding.

Based on what I've heard, it seems that the PDO's effects on the upper level patterns are very much debatable. Some say it does affect it while others say it's just a result of the past ENSO conditions. Since I'm not an expert in this area, I don't have much to add to the discussion.

[Typeing3]

Range AI looks to flatten the ridge a bit.


aifs_z500_anom_noram_348.png

What a weird looking pattern.

[Typeing3]

Based on what I've heard, it seems that the PDO's effects on the upper level patterns are very much debatable. Some say it does affect it while others say it's just a result of the past ENSO conditions. I'm not an expert in this area so I don't have much to add to the discussion.

It's definitely up for debate. I recall this discussion when we had "The Blob" off the coast in the 2013-2016 period.

[Catnip]

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[Typeing3]

18z GFS
Day 6-15

gfs_z500a_namer_fh150-384.gif

[Catnip]

"Hot" off the press.

Outlook for the remainder of DEC.

[AbbyJr]

More clown range fun.

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-c00-namer-z500_anom-6121600.png

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-c00-wcan-t850_anom-6121600.png

[Catnip]

More clown range fun.


gfs-ensemble-extended-all-c00-namer-z500_anom-6121600.png

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-c00-wcan-t850_anom-6121600.png

[Typeing3]

Mix of winters on the list. Jr's favourite (January 1954) amongst them.

Gekn0iIaEAIYhwc.png

[wetcoast91]

That really looks like a textbook strong El Nino pattern. 2015-16, 2009-10, 1997-98, etc.

We won't have an early spring like those years but I suspect we will not see any significant arctic blats this winter.

The models continue to plant the ridge over us. It shows signs of weakening but immediately reorganizes and strengthens. This may remain with us for a while.

[Typeing3]

We won't have an early spring like those years but I suspect we will not see any significant arctic blats this winter.

Definitely not December at this point of course but January and February are still far out. January is iffy for obvious reasons but February has delivered more often than not in the last 15 years.

[PortKells]

We won't have an early spring like those years but I suspect we will not see any significant arctic blats this winter.

The models continue to plant the ridge over us. It shows signs of weakening but immediately reorganizes and strengthens. This may remain with us for a while.

I'd say this is the worst slump the pacific northwest/world has had in over a million years.

[Roberts Creeker]

...and on to something other than a toasty, warm, green Christmas...

Chris Mass is now indicting areas that may suffer from power outages in his blog. I may be in the red, the map cuts off just before the Sunshine Coast.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/12/ ... -zYP3OqM2A

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

ecmwf-deterministic-or_wa-t2m_f_max6-4544800.png

[Hawk]

We won't have an early spring like those years but I suspect we will not see any significant arctic blats this winter.

The models continue to plant the ridge over us. It shows signs of weakening but immediately reorganizes and strengthens. This may remain with us for a while.

#patternlock