December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

[tyweather]

I guess I live on an island now. It shall be called TYweather Island.

[tyweather]

Flood debris in the Fraser

[Storm]

Let's go.

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[Typeing3]

12z ECMWF ensembles

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[Storm]

The thickness on the latest NAEFS. We need
525 thickness and lower to snow down to sea level.

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[PortKells]

Breaking News Quinn Hughes traded to the Wild details to come.

Now we have to rebuild our snow chances AND our hockey team! Except that GFS is in win now mode just like Rutherford.

[Catnip]

Now we have to rebuild our snow chances AND our hockey team! Except that GFS is in win now mode just like Rutherford.

GFS has been pretty adamant on something happening during this period.

Hopefully it takes the lead on this one....

[PortKells]

GFS has been pretty adamant on something happening during this period.

Hopefully it takes the lead on this one....

We've seen this before. The GFS has an amplification bias to our region. Not gonna lie I still hold out that 1% hope that it's right and all the other models are wrong but I will remain skeptical. Let's see what happens here tonight.

You also notice the spaghetti ensemble for the euro...I don't think any of them touch that -10 level. Bottoms out around -5C for not very long. That's not very convincing.

[Storm]

We've seen this before. The GFS has an amplification bias to our region. Not gonna lie I still hold out that 1% hope that it's right and all the other models are wrong but I will remain skeptical. Let's see what happens here tonight.

You also notice the spaghetti ensemble for the euro...I don't think any of them touch that -10 level. Bottoms out around -5C for not very long. That's not very convincing.

Gfs is alone? Snow down to sea level. ICON is caving. 19th. Onward

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[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I guess I live on an island now. It shall be called TYweather Island.

Build it and they'll come Ty my man.

[Typeing3]

Gfs is alone? Snow down to sea level. ICON is caving. 19th. Onward


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-5c 850mb temps with onshore flow = cold rain and/or slush for sea level. 100-200m snow levels.

If there was a preceeding cold air mass at the surface or offshore flow while precip is falling, we'll see snow down to sea level.

[Catnip]

Wouldn't that be nice for the mountains...

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[Rubus_Leucodermis]

-5c 850mb temps with onshore flow = cold rain and/or slush for sea level. 100-200m snow levels.

If there was a preceeding cold air mass at the surface or offshore flow while precip is falling, we'll see snow down to sea level.

Yup. My rule of thumb is we need 850 mbar temps of -7˚C or colder to get a lowland snowfall.

[Typeing3]

Yup. My rule of thumb is we need 850 mbar temps of -7˚C or colder to get a lowland snowfall.

Yep, -6/-7c is the threshold without any other variables in play.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Not really paid much attention but is the Arctic fart south of 100 Mile or Clinton.?