PortKells wrote: ↑Sat Dec 27, 2025 10:11 am
Generational La Nina dud.
16 minutes ago, Phil said:
Not ready to throw in the towel on winter, plenty of ways back into a good pattern eventually, but the first three weeks of January are (probably) cooked IMO.
Need to score this winter if next winter is a Niño/+QBO though. That’s the worst setup possible for the PNW (and the entire USA as well). Torch city. Even we torch during those winters, despite the occasional blizzard that melts 24hrs later.
Phil will get mobbed and lynched as usual but this looks very similar to that 2014-2016 stretch.
PortKells wrote: ↑Sat Dec 27, 2025 10:13 am
How far we've fallen to consider our first true freeze after christmas and some isolated flurries to be victories in a La Nina year. Considering that absolutely nothing is coming for the next 15-20 days. February always brings hope but nothing is guaranteed.
I think we will see a -PNA with the right placement in Feb but the AO will assume a positive phase until late March. Cool but not cold.
GEFS and EPS with the best case scenario. Big ridge developing by mid Jan. Would be a well deserved dry spell for us and set the West Coast up for a cool Feb.
Amazing consistency. T3 will have to wait another year or two for Jan to deliver.
wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 27, 2025 11:24 am
GEFS and EPS with the best case scenario. Big ridge developing by mid Jan. Would be a well deserved dry spell for us and set the West Coast up for a cool Feb.
Amazing consistency. T3 will have to wait another year or two for Jan to deliver.
Crazy how automatic this is in the month of January now.
wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 27, 2025 11:24 am
GEFS and EPS with the best case scenario. Big ridge developing by mid Jan. Would be a well deserved dry spell for us and set the West Coast up for a cool Feb.
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Amazing consistency. T3 will have to wait another year or two for Jan to deliver.
Would much rather sit under a ridge for weeks than suffer through endless SW flow as we did in November and the first half of December.
Amazing consistency is also 33 years without a legitimately cold January.
Up to plus 0.8c @ Harrison l wonder if the lake has a moderating effect since l have a north wind off the lake but yet Agassiz is -1.7c any thoughts or my thermometer is wrong.
Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 27, 2025 11:54 am
Would much rather sit under a ridge for weeks than suffer through endless SW flow as we did in November and the first half of December.
Amazing consistency is also 33 years without a legitimately cold January.
At this point, we probably have to consider a 2020 or a 2024 to be a cold Jan. Sadly.
PortKells wrote: ↑Sat Dec 27, 2025 12:24 pm
At this point, we probably have to consider a 2020 or a 2024 to be a cold Jan. Sadly.
Mean temp in January 2020 was 4.6c at YVR. It was warmer than average, even based on the 1991-2020 normals. January 2024 averaged 3.8c.
Meanwhile we've seen December 2008 (0.9c average), December 2016 (0.9c average), February 2019 (0.4c average), December 2021 (0.9c average), and December 2022 (1.4c average). If the same patterns as we saw in those months occurred in January, there's a real chance we'd have seen at least a couple sub-zero monthly averages by now. As it stands, January 1993 is the last month at YVR that accomplished that.
I think the most frustrating aspect of our changing local climate for me, is how cold onshore flow doesn’t produce for coastal areas anymore. This is a purely anecdotal take, of course.
Bonovox wrote: ↑Sat Dec 27, 2025 1:14 pm
I think the most frustrating aspect of our changing local climate for me, is how cold onshore flow doesn’t produce for coastal areas anymore. This is a purely anecdotal take, of course.
Warming waters off the coast and minor temp increases due to the UHI are making a huge difference in marginal setups. Most of our snowfalls in the past would happen with a +0.5C temp. We know both the warmer SST and UHI has been linked to warmer surface temps in Southern California.
Fall/Winter 
