February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Hawk
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

06z gfs says no way and enjoy the :14clown: :14clown: range snow that disappears on every 2nd or 3rd run :lol: :lol:
We get more ridging around Feb 20+ now :cancel: :flakey: :cancel:

#keepdreaming
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Ended up with 28.0 mm yesterday and an overnight min of 2.8˚C which is the current temperature.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Hawk
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

just the Kronix on here posting lately lolol. Guilty! :wave:
We've lost Catnip due to this sad season we called winter(region wide snow totals of 0cm), but it was really just an extension of Autumn. I mean lets face the facts! Sky high freezing levels the entire winter pretty much. If next winter is a Mod or Strong EN, i mean can it be any worse than this winter? :think: Probably not.
Rant over
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

A freeze for some this morning.

Abbotsford 1.4°C
Agassiz 0.0°C
Burns Bog -0.2°C
Hope 2.3°C
Langley 0.0°C
MBY 2.6˚C
Pitt Meadows 0.8°C
Squamish 4.5°C
Vancouver Harbour 6.0°C
Vancouver YVR 3.1°C
West Vancouver 4.8°C
White Rock 4.1°C
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Hawk wrote: Sun Feb 08, 2026 8:21 am just the Kronix on here posting lately lolol. Guilty! :wave:
We've lost Catnip due to this sad season we called winter(region wide snow totals of 0cm), but it was really just an extension of Autumn. I mean lets face the facts! Sky high freezing levels the entire winter pretty much. If next winter is a Mod or Strong EN, i mean can it be any worse than this winter? :think: Probably not.
Rant over
This winter is about as bad (or, if you are on Team Pineapple, as good) as it gets. Even most El Niño winters average more snow than we have gotten so far. So I would have to say the odds disfavour two epic duds in a row.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Sun Feb 08, 2026 8:26 am This winter is about as bad (or, if you are on Team Pineapple, as good) as it gets. Even most El Niño winters average more snow than we have gotten so far. So I would have to say the odds disfavour two epic duds in a row.
With the trajectory of our climate, it can always be worse. Less ARs and more ridgy but still hella warm is my prediction.
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

PortKells wrote: Sun Feb 08, 2026 9:35 am With the trajectory of our climate, it can always be worse. Less ARs and more ridgy but still hella warm is my prediction.
I have seen and read projections in terms of climate change impacts that the PNW region would actually increase in moisture. Maybe less frequent rains but an increase in higher damaging intense rain storms.
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

stuffradio wrote: Sun Feb 08, 2026 11:03 am I have seen and read projections in terms of climate change impacts that the PNW region would actually increase in moisture. Maybe less frequent rains but an increase in higher damaging intense rain storms.
Sure, some years. Other years will be droughts. I think the word that resonates for me is chaos. It will be unpredictable and unbalanced. But generally warmer with the odd exception of.
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

PortKells wrote: Sun Feb 08, 2026 11:07 am Sure, some years. Other years will be droughts. I think the word that resonates for me is chaos. It will be unpredictable and unbalanced. But generally warmer with the odd exception of.
Precipitation Projections are mixed, with some models projecting wetter conditions and some projecting drier. However, a majority of models project increases in precipitation for winter, spring, and fall precipitation and decreases in summer precipitation.

SOURCE: https://cig.uw.edu/resources/analysis-t ... tion-tool/
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

12z gfs has flipped the script of course and has something serious brewing :shock:
..only 13 days away! :lol: :lol:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Hawk wrote: Sun Feb 08, 2026 12:14 pm 12z gfs has flipped the script of course and has something serious brewing :shock:
..only 13 days away! :lol: :lol:
Not throwing in the towel until it’s the 23rd and there’s still nothing of interest within the believable five-day window.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

stuffradio wrote: Sun Feb 08, 2026 11:03 am I have seen and read projections in terms of climate change impacts that the PNW region would actually increase in moisture. Maybe less frequent rains but an increase in higher damaging intense rain storms.
stuffradio wrote: Sun Feb 08, 2026 11:23 am Precipitation Projections are mixed, with some models projecting wetter conditions and some projecting drier. However, a majority of models project increases in precipitation for winter, spring, and fall precipitation and decreases in summer precipitation.

SOURCE: https://cig.uw.edu/resources/analysis-t ... tion-tool/
This. Annual precipitation amounts in our region have actually increased over the period of record. The effects of climate change during this time have and will likely lead to an increase in more concentrated, extreme heavy precipitation events (ARs).
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Too far south, immediately followed by too far north. Can't make this stuff up!
ecmwf-aifs-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1770573600-1771416000-1771869600-40-2.gif
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Abby_wx »

High of 13.4C today. That’s my 4th 13C+ high so far this month, and the 7th this year.
:dragon:

Fall/Winter 2025/26
Low min: -5.0C (Feb 20th)
Low max: 2.8C (Feb 19th)
Snowfall: 3 cm
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Abby_wx wrote: Sun Feb 08, 2026 5:46 pm High of 13.4C today. That’s my 4th 13C+ high so far this month, and the 7th this year.
#TheYearWithoutWinter

:problem:
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