March 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

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12z ECMWF ensembles:

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12z GEM ensembles:

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[PortKells]

Holy cow it's coming John.

Maybe Harrison gets bullseyed here. Sheltered from the pacific, you never know.

[stuffradio]

will most likely be issued tonight.

SWS in effect.

Low-Elevation Snowfall for South Coast

When:
- Tuesday morning: Widespread risk.
- Wednesday morning: Local risk over higher terrain and inland sections.

What:
- Trace to 4 cm for areas near sea level.
- Near or possibly exceeding 5 cm over higher terrain including the Malahat Highway, inland areas of Vancouver Island, and the North Shore on the Mainland.
- The Sea to Sky Highway north of Squamish and including Whistler is forecast to receive 5 to 15 cm by Tuesday evening.

Hazards:
- Potential for challenging driving conditions. Allow extra time for travel.
- Prepare for sudden reduction in visibility in heavy flurries.

Remarks: A cold, unstable air mass is bringing a risk of snow down to sea level. Accumulations will be highly variable over short distances and will impact the Tuesday morning commute.
North of Squamish, precipitation is likely to remain as snow throughout the day on Tuesday and Tuesday evening, generating higher total snowfall accumulations for the Sea to Sky Highway and Whistler. Inland areas, especially higher elevation roads of Vancouver Island are also at risk of wet flurries and additional accumulations continuing Tuesday afternoon.

The risk of flurries returns Wednesday morning but is likely to be confined to neighbourhoods and roadways over higher terrain.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to BCstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #BCStorm.

I just came here to post this. #MarchSnowIsReal

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

will most likely be issued tonight.

SWS in effect.

Low-Elevation Snowfall for South Coast

When:
- Tuesday morning: Widespread risk.
- Wednesday morning: Local risk over higher terrain and inland sections.

What:
- Trace to 4 cm for areas near sea level.
- Near or possibly exceeding 5 cm over higher terrain including the Malahat Highway, inland areas of Vancouver Island, and the North Shore on the Mainland.
- The Sea to Sky Highway north of Squamish and including Whistler is forecast to receive 5 to 15 cm by Tuesday evening.

Hazards:
- Potential for challenging driving conditions. Allow extra time for travel.
- Prepare for sudden reduction in visibility in heavy flurries.

Remarks: A cold, unstable air mass is bringing a risk of snow down to sea level. Accumulations will be highly variable over short distances and will impact the Tuesday morning commute.
North of Squamish, precipitation is likely to remain as snow throughout the day on Tuesday and Tuesday evening, generating higher total snowfall accumulations for the Sea to Sky Highway and Whistler. Inland areas, especially higher elevation roads of Vancouver Island are also at risk of wet flurries and additional accumulations continuing Tuesday afternoon.

The risk of flurries returns Wednesday morning but is likely to be confined to neighbourhoods and roadways over higher terrain.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to BCstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #BCStorm.

Hype from EC. Kiss of death. Plus, March.

Not happening.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Maybe Harrison gets bullseyed here. Sheltered from the pacific, you never know.

Never know looking at current radar not much happening yet.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

The NAM 3km is the only high-res mesoscale model showing something interesting in the next 24 hours, and pretty much all of what it shows comes after sunup tomorrow so isn’t going to accumulate much.

1773169200-q4ZEqw2janQ.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I mean, I guess I may get to see the roofs and lawns briefly turn white again tomorrow. Small victories.

[AbbyJr]

I'd be very surprised if most if even any areas see any meaningful snowfall. The Euro is the only model showing it and it keeps the snow focussed over the Fraser Valley. At first glance, it actually looks like terrain bleed although I verified that surface temperatures are modelled to be around -4C to 0C during the precipitation but that could be a terrain issue as well. My guess is that the Euro is overdoing the cold and perhaps the moisture. As Wetcoast said, this is a completely different setup from March 2002. This time, we don't have any arctic tap other than modified cold from the NW. Such a setup could produce late November through January but I'd be quite shocked if it did in March. Hopefully I'm wrong. Time will tell.

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-3165600.png

ecmwf-aifs-all-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-3165600.png

rgem-all-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-3165600.png

hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-3165600.png

nam-nest-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-3165600.png

hrrr-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-3165600.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I'd be very surprised if most if even any areas see any meaningful snowfall. The Euro is the only model showing it and it keeps the snow focussed over the Fraser Valley. At first glance, it actually looks like terrain bleed although I verified that surface temperatures are modelled to be around -4C to 0C during the precipitation but that could be a terrain issue as well. My guess is that the Euro is overdoing the cold and perhaps the moisture. As Wetcoast said, this is a completely different setup from March 2002. This time, we don't have any arctic tap other than modified cold from the NW. Such a setup could produce late November through January but I'd be quite shocked if it did in March. Hopefully I'm wrong. Time will tell.


ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-3165600.png

ecmwf-aifs-all-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-3165600.png

rgem-all-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-3165600.png

hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-3165600.png

nam-nest-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-3165600.png

hrrr-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-3165600.png

I wouldn’t pay attention to the Euro at all. This is going to be driven by mesoscale features (showers), and the Euro is not a mesoscale model. It forecast a nice dump of snow late last month for Vancouver (another mesoscale-driven event). The meso models showed dustings at best. Vancouver ended up with dustings at best.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I'd be very surprised if most if even any areas see any meaningful snowfall. The Euro is the only model showing it and it keeps the snow focussed over the Fraser Valley. At first glance, it actually looks like terrain bleed although I verified that surface temperatures are modelled to be around -4C to 0C during the precipitation but that could be a terrain issue as well. My guess is that the Euro is overdoing the cold and perhaps the moisture. As Wetcoast said, this is a completely different setup from March 2002. This time, we don't have any arctic tap other than modified cold from the NW. Such a setup could produce late November through January but I'd be quite shocked if it did in March. Hopefully I'm wrong. Time will tell.


ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-3165600.png

ecmwf-aifs-all-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-3165600.png

rgem-all-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-3165600.png

hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-3165600.png

nam-nest-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-3165600.png

hrrr-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-3165600.png

Looks great for the lake @ Harrison but will have to dream on Jr. Man hopefully next winter payoffs l never got to see my new home town in white let alone frost. I can't remember a winter with so few frosty mornings in my life.

[PortKells]

I'd be very surprised if most if even any areas see any meaningful snowfall. The Euro is the only model showing it and it keeps the snow focussed over the Fraser Valley. At first glance, it actually looks like terrain bleed although I verified that surface temperatures are modelled to be around -4C to 0C during the precipitation but that could be a terrain issue as well. My guess is that the Euro is overdoing the cold and perhaps the moisture. As Wetcoast said, this is a completely different setup from March 2002. This time, we don't have any arctic tap other than modified cold from the NW. Such a setup could produce late November through January but I'd be quite shocked if it did in March. Hopefully I'm wrong. Time will tell.


ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-3165600.png

ecmwf-aifs-all-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-3165600.png

rgem-all-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-3165600.png

hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-3165600.png

nam-nest-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-3165600.png

hrrr-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-3165600.png

0Z hrrr

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[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Looks great for the lake @ Harrison but will have to dream on Jr. Man hopefully next winter payoffs l never got to see my new home town in white let alone frost. I can't remember a winter with so few frosty mornings in my life.

As pessimistic as I am about snow in March, there is a decent chance you see a dusting of white stuff tomorrow morning.

Regarding frosts, you really suffered from this winter.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

As pessimistic as I am about snow in March, there is a decent chance you see a dusting of white stuff tomorrow morning.

Regarding frosts, you really suffered from this winter.

Actually it was more the wind off the lake Rubes. I found on clear nights if the wind kicked up off the lake my temperature would rise. Yet when I drove into Agassiz in the a.m. they had frost.

[PortKells]

This has to be the closest any of us have come all winter

hrrr-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-3180000.png

[Roberts Creeker]

1:00am and it’s snowing here. Can see the stars too. Light cover on the deck in just a few minutes.