December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[Storm]

Lol. What the eff happened. That's straight up ridiculous. The previous ensembles looked way better.

???

[wetcoast91]

Lol. What the eff happened. That's straight up ridiculous. The previous ensembles looked way better.

Major fluctuations with the temperatures can happen with tiny adjustments of the 500mb pattern. Pattern looks ripe with potential but how snowy it gets will be dependent on how amplified that NPAC ridge gets.

[Hawk]

Havent we been chasing carrots for weeks now? There is almost always cold/snow in the long term lol. Snow is in there because there is always about a 10% chance we will see snow in the long term.
If we get to Jan 3 with nothing substantial, or nothing significant on the "radar", it will be another sad winter. Feb snows suck..because mostly it a slush festival. Time is ticking buttees..

[Catnip]

Havent we been chasing carrots for weeks now? There is almost always cold/snow in the long term lol. Snow is in there because there is always about a 10% chance we will see snow in the long term.
If we get to Jan 3 with nothing substantial, or nothing significant on the "radar", it will be another sad winter. Feb snows suck..because mostly it a slush festival. Time is ticking buttees..

Buttee.... models have been showing some consistency for a few days now. Usually when the EPS is consistent it’s a good sign. Example - FEB 2019.

Not to say it can’t all go to sh*t, but the signs are encouraging.

[Typeing3]

EPS la la for comparison sakes.

47D467B1-633A-489B-A6D1-AC1D1F7F7A35.png
0C9BADAF-9FD6-4EA5-9632-69A7DBCA08E3.png

Can you post the 10-15 day ensemble mean?

[Storm]

Can you post the 10-15 day ensemble mean?

This?

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-8700800.png

[Catnip]

Can you post the 10-15 day ensemble mean?

64BA5615-419C-4662-B1D9-324D9F45BF1E.png

AB8AA8F9-9B53-4855-BA0D-00953910790E.png

[Typeing3]

^both work. Thanks.

[Typeing3]

Split flow!

[Catnip]

Split flow!

Go split somewhere else!

[Storm]

Go split somewhere else!

Not so fast.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_37.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_38.png

[wetcoast91]

Not so fast.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_37.png
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_38.png

That front is splitting.

[Catnip]

Looks like the 12z is a bit quicker with the arrival of the “Troff” for next weekend.

[Storm]

That front is splitting.

10 days out. Sure thing.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_41.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_42.png

[Catnip]

Come next weekend it will be #dry

That’s how things have evolved lately.