December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Storm
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Catnip wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:22 pm I can’t remember the last time the OP has been going so far off of it’s (old version) ensembles like this?
I wonder what gives.
Last February the models had a hiccup for a couple of days before they lock in to a solution.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Maybe you guys should all go and take a shower.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Day 10.

GFS:
gfs_z500a_namer_41.png
GFS ensembles:
gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png
Like night and day. :lol:
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by South Island »

We are very used to seeing the op go on crazy cold runs but then check the ensembles and it’s a complete outlier...I wasn’t expecting to see the ensembles look like that this time...which is nice 8-)
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Gem Operational seems to run warmer as well.
Screenshot_20191228-212859_Samsung Internet.jpg
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Antares »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:28 pm Day 10.

GFS:
gfs_z500a_namer_41.png
GFS ensembles:
gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

Like night and day. :lol:
The GFS doesn't even look remotely realistic. :lol: :lol: :lol:
It always snows in December in the Kootenays :clap:
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

More ensemble improvement! 850mb mean temp does not rise above -5C from Friday onwards thru day 16. :thumbup:
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Last edited by Typeing3 on Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

GEFS is pretty chilly right through after the 3rd.
72712586-8AEF-461B-A963-C0DED469CE5B.png
1B831492-299A-4EAA-A1D8-39DD5330FB96.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Wow. This guy is such a clown. He as pro met. should know better. I have never seen Michael Ventrise ever posting Operational run this far out and make a statement like this.
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 27392?s=19
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:34 pm More ensemble improvement! 850mb mean temp does not rise above -5C from Friday onwards thru day 16. :thumbup:
One downside it that it appears to have trended drier.
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Antares wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:31 pm The GFS doesn't even look remotely realistic. :lol: :lol: :lol:
Its utterly useless in the long range. Disregard what it says even if its eye candy.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Storm wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:36 pm Wow. This guy is such a clown. He as pro met. should know better. I have never seen Michael Ventrise ever posting Operational run this far out and make a statement like this.
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 27392?s=19
I actually enjoy listening to his videos on WeatherBELL but I'd have to agree that as a professional meteorologist, its pretty irresponsible for him to post a long range GFS map and make such a bold statement. Especially given the inconsistency the GFS has shown in the long range.
Last edited by AbbyJr on Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:45 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

3C80162D-C8D4-4184-8DE7-3A1C2EC9A4F0.png
9328F53A-CA0E-46CA-B362-6248A7088820.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

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Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Catnip wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:44 pm 3C80162D-C8D4-4184-8DE7-3A1C2EC9A4F0.png
9328F53A-CA0E-46CA-B362-6248A7088820.png
Send this to Big Joe.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Same script. Ensembles start showing improvement, operational goes on wonky outlier runs, we'll wait for it to settle back down. At the very least, low snow levels and mountain snow, not the end of the world right?
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