December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[stuffradio]

Your posts always make me consider killing myself- good thing I have other hobbies besides weather...

That's not good. You might need to take a step back from model riding and like you said, find more things to enjoy besides hope in snowy weather.

[AbbyJr]

4indices.png

I'd say there is like a 0-5 % chance that the PNA reverts back to positive. Is Bastardi using Nito's account?

[Storm]

That's not good. You might need to take a step back from model riding and like you said, find more things to enjoy besides hope in snowy weather.

Or maybe push the ignite button.

#HISTORICEASTCOASTCOLD

[wetcoast91]

Thanks Bastardi

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/121 ... 97026?s=20

So a stalked PV shifting to the other side of the globe isnt conducive to positive anomolies towards the western conus?

That PNA forecast is garbage right now.

[Storm]

So a stalked PV shifting to the other side of the globe isnt conducive to positive anomolies towards the western conus?

That PNA forecast is garbage right now.

Cool your jets. There is 10 day to find out. What models are you referring to?
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 97506?s=19

[AbbyJr]

So a stalked PV shifting to the other side of the globe isnt conducive to positive anomolies towards the western conus?

That PNA forecast is garbage right now.

So all 3 ensembles, which show excellent agreement, have it wrong? Highly unlikely.

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-pna-box-7664000.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-pna-box-7707200.png

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-pna-box-7664000.png

[wetcoast91]

So all 3 ensembles, which show excellent agreement, have it wrong? Highly unlikely.

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-pna-box-7664000.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-pna-box-7707200.png

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-pna-box-7664000.png

All 3 ensembles were completely off with the evolution of the Jan 2nd-Jan 7th pattern.

[Catnip]

All 3 ensembles were completely off with the evolution of the Jan 2nd-Jan 7th pattern.

You can say that again! Were they ever.

[Monty]

The PNA forecasts aren’t magical. They are based off models just like all forecasts and likely have a similar skill score.

[Catnip]

77FC1EE0-823B-4078-B4F8-99E60FB88799.jpeg

[wetcoast91]

The PNA forecasts aren’t magical. They are based off models just like all forecasts and likely have a similar skill score.

Exactly.

Hey look, block sets up in a favorable position with a kona low. One issue is that the PV has retracted so theres little cold air to work with.

[AbbyJr]

Euro improvements so far:

Todays 12Z:

12Zeuro.png

00Z:

00Zeuro.png

[stuffradio]

There's this too

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 8972518400

[Storm]

Exactly.

Hey look, block sets up in a favorable position with a kona low. One issue is that the PV has retracted so theres little cold air to work with.

Hey look, the Massive East Coast Ice Box

[Storm]

Euro improvements so far:

Todays 12Z:

12Zeuro.png

00Z:

00Zeuro.png

Models are all over the place. Nito should know that better than any of us here.