January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

At this point, even a rug pull would be welcome.

As fun as trolling in the other forum can be, it would still be a low-grade consolation prize for not getting the goods.

[Catnip]

Temps have been dropping off this afternoon under the heavy rain. Could see a splat or two in some locations this evening.

[Hawk]

Yep.

Stick a fork in Jan. Feb is our winter month these days.

Another member jumping onto...
#teamNito

[Hawk]

Soon Catnip, we will be driving to the hills on a regular basis to chase window splats

[Typeing3]

Bone dry as well?

Why not Feb 2019?

All depends where the offshore ridge sets up.

At YVR, extreme mins were actually lower in Feb 2014 compared to 2019. Though the interior cold pool and 850mb temps during Feb 2019 was definitely more impressive.

Either way, we never saw any major arctic blasts during either month. Persistent moderate cold in Feb 2019 made for top tier monthly average temps across the south coast though. Similar to December 2016.

[AbbyJr]

Most (if not all) of Jan is looking like a write off.

Pattern may turn favourable during the last five days of the month, but long range models seem to indicate blocking will set up too close to the coast.

Seems like its our destiny to score in Feb these days so if the GOA ridge retrogrades we could perhaps see a backdoor blast. Maybe something similar to early Feb 2014.

Respectively disagree. We are only now beginning to see a significant pattern change in the models. There is still lots of time for the timing to move up and for something better to show up. Its hard to see what is exactly going to happen with the ensembles, because its watered down since its an average of all the members. Not to mention, the models are still trying to figure out the pattern following the SSW.

Even if we don't see the cold pattern develop until around the 25th, I still think there is potential for something better than February 2014.

Just my thoughts but I could be wrong. I hope I'm not though.

[Bonovox]

All depends where the offshore ridge sets up.

At YVR, extreme mins were actually lower in Feb 2014 compared to 2019. Though the interior cold pool and 850mb temps during Feb 2019 was definitely more impressive.

Either way, we never saw any major arctic blasts during either month. Persistent moderate cold in Feb 2019 made for top tier monthly average temps across the south coast though. Similar to December 2016.

Out of curiousity, would you prefer extreme cold or snow? If you had to choose between the two.

[Bonovox]

A stronger block and weaker Aleutian low on the 18z. Baby steps.

[PortKells]

A stronger block and weaker Aleutian low on the 18z. Baby steps.

Trend is our friend. Let’s see what the ensembles say about it.

[Hawk]

Out of curiousity, would you prefer extreme cold or snow? If you had to choose between the two.

Extreme cold in Feb? Not going to happen..take the snow Keyboardman
Extreme cold around here is a 6 week window..otherwise im sure most of us would take the snow. Besides, extreme cold makes my hands crack..generational genetic flaw

[AbbyJr]

Out of curiousity, would you prefer extreme cold or snow? If you had to choose between the two.

Snow for me. I'd be happy with another February 2017 repeat... but would prefer a bit longer duration.

I don't need Siberian cold. I just want it to be cold enough to snow and stick for lots of accumulation.

Technically, we only need temperatures around -1C to fulfill my wish.

That said, I would not say no to both extreme cold and snow. But that seems unlikely in our climate now.

[stuffradio]

Out of curiousity, would you prefer extreme cold or snow? If you had to choose between the two.

It would always be snow for me. I'm not a huge fan of extreme cold, just snow.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Extreme cold in Feb? Not going to happen..take the snow Keyboardman

1989.

[Typeing3]

Out of curiousity, would you prefer extreme cold or snow? If you had to choose between the two.

I'd say extreme snow for sure. Most extreme snowfalls on the south coast are either preceded or are followed by extreme cold though...see Feb 1923, Jan 1935, Dec 1968, Dec 1990, Dec 1996 etc.

I ramble on about extreme cold all the time because those days with highs below -4/5c or lows below -10/11c (at YVR) that used to occur on a relatively frequent basis have been pretty much removed from our current climate.

[PortKells]

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