January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

How many feetz did Chilliwack record?

Believe it or not, only 10.5cm over the 48 hour period. 69.8cm over a 10 day period. My guess is the dry outflow won east of Abbotsford. Rare for Abbotsford to do better than Chilliwack but it happens once in a while.

However, Chilliwack did better with the overunning event on the 11th with 23.1cm. Abbotsford only got 5.6cm during that storm.

Microclimates.

[SouthSardiswx]

Believe it or not, only 10.5cm over the 48 hour period. 69.8cm over a 10 day period. My guess is the dry outflow won east of Abbotsford. Rare for Abbotsford to do better than Chilliwack but it happens once in a while.

However, Chilliwack did better with the overunning event on the 11th with 23.1cm. Abbotsford only got 5.6cm during that storm.

Microclimates.

Interesting indeed.

[Catnip]

Wouldn't surprise me. I often don't do well in cold onshore flow setups.

Abbotsford does best when there is already arctic air entrenched or moisture meets up with an incoming arctic front forming a convergence zone.

All kidding aside, I do hope you score something with the upcoming pattern.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

No unfortunately I was in Portland during that time, which majorly busted.

Sucks. I was in Portland during most of it, but (barely) arrived back at my home in Shoreline just north of Seattle as it was winding down. Like I said earlier, it was surreal. Over two feet of snow on the ground and still snowing like mad when I got back home. The sort of storm I knew had historically happened decades ago, so I knew it was theoretically possible, but I still never expected to see such a thing. And I had half the snow Bellingham got, and less than half what Victoria got!

The rain/snow line was for the most part between Seattle and Tacoma. Seeing how quickly amounts increased as I went north was another surreal aspect of that storm.

[PortKells]

Don't know if its possible for the ooz runs to improve on those last ones but those ensemble snow outputs are just filthy. I saw the meteogram chart for KBLI on the American forum, wow. I hope this run maintains that average and kicks out some of the lower outliers to give us a clearer pictures.

[Storm]

tenor.gif

[Catnip]

9D9E6956-06D6-4C37-816D-FF087F0A42FC.png

18z

04A8B233-3895-45D2-B0DF-7C594CE7D492.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Don't know if its possible for the ooz runs to improve on those last ones but those ensemble snow outputs are just filthy. I saw the meteogram chart for KBLI on the American forum, wow. I hope this run maintains that average and kicks out some of the lower outliers to give us a clearer pictures.

Just for the curious:

gfs-ensemble-all-KBLI-indiv_snow-1079200.png

[Monty]

Arctic air much further west this weekend ^

[Monty]

Good for the island. But drier outflow and suppression may equal depression for some

[John]

Arctic air much further west this weekend ^

Yes dryer colder or warmer
Wetter
It
Seems

[SouthHillFrosty]

Bust

[Esquimalt39]

Good for the island. But drier outflow and suppression may equal depression for some

Would that be cool enough for Victoria? Looks extremely marginal.

[John]

Good for the island. But drier outflow and suppression may equal depression for some

Better chances
For later if the cold
Settle in first.

[AbbyJr]

That low for Sunday is trending even further west on the 00Z GFS. The island scores once again while the mainland misses out. Stupid.