This is possibly the most frustrating hobby out there lol. It’s like Murphy’s law encapsulated in one climate. This place is the Canucks of climates.
January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions
- PortKells
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions
- Hawk
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions
06zGFS brings more sadness. Can somebody post other maps please for some morning happiness
MAYDAY MAYDAY! We need some warm sunny weather this month. Some showers mixed in would be good too
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
- PortKells
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions
These ensemble snow outputs are pretty but basically useless.Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:05 pm Just for the curious:
gfs-ensemble-all-KBLI-indiv_snow-1079200.png
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
- Monty
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions
Could very well be too warm over here anyway.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
- wetcoast91
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions
Yep.AbbyJr wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 11:29 pm Not to mention, model performance has been very poor this winter so far. The ensembles were trending very cold but have since gone mild.
You may end up being right in that the SSW effects were overrated and it wasn't nearly as likely to produce a desired outcome as those on the American forums claimed. Though to be fair, history does tell us that SSW events certainly can and do produce desirable outcomes for our region. February 2018 and 2019 are two recent examples.
That said, I still think this upcoming February has potential. We'll know more about that in a week or so.
Potentially one element but not yet proven. Seen major SSW events in 2010 and 2015 that dropped the PV due East. It also seems as if the climate indices will sometimes disregard the SSW episodes and render their impact as inconsequential.
Meanwhile...
- Storm
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions
Canadian is snowy. Major snow event Tuesday into Wednesday.
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North Burnaby/Burquitlam
Elevation - 64 M./210 Feet
Elevation - 64 M./210 Feet
- VanCitySouth
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions
GFS also moved the precip back inland a bit Sat night/Sunday
2023-24 season stats:
Climo 81 to 44 GFS
Season total: 39.0 cm + 3 traces
Peak depth: 28.0 cm (Jan 17)
Climo 81 to 44 GFS
Season total: 39.0 cm + 3 traces
Peak depth: 28.0 cm (Jan 17)
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions
Big change from what other models and runs have been showing.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
- VanCitySouth
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions
That's true, if we applied the same standards we'd be crying outlier and chucking it out the window
2023-24 season stats:
Climo 81 to 44 GFS
Season total: 39.0 cm + 3 traces
Peak depth: 28.0 cm (Jan 17)
Climo 81 to 44 GFS
Season total: 39.0 cm + 3 traces
Peak depth: 28.0 cm (Jan 17)
- PortKells
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions
That system has been trending north some on other models but that is a big jump. We will see.VanCitySouth wrote: ↑Wed Jan 20, 2021 8:50 am That's true, if we applied the same standards we'd be crying outlier and chucking it out the window
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
- Catnip
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions
GEM still looks ok for the weekend?
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.
#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB
2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm
Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB
2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm
Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
- Catnip
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions
Seeing how this winter has been evolving, I don't think it would really take all that much snow to make people happy.
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.
#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB
2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm
Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB
2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm
Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
- Storm
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions
UKMET isn't bad either.
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North Burnaby/Burquitlam
Elevation - 64 M./210 Feet
Elevation - 64 M./210 Feet