February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

EPS is also flipping back to the colder solutions in the short term.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-2785600.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-albertabc-t850_anom_stream-2785600.png

[John]

I was just about to say. I don't think he read the legend.

850mb temps of -15c at YVR would be a legit arctic outbreak, but the criteria should be lower in Hope, given average winter temps are about 2-3c lower than Vancouver.

Ok sorry I thought that was a surface map

[Hound]

EPS is also flipping back to the colder solutions in the short term.

[AbbyJr]

kma500mb.png

kma850temps.png

[PortKells]

EPS is also flipping back to the colder solutions in the short term.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-2785600.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-albertabc-t850_anom_stream-2785600.png

I've been very pessimistic but I do remember posting the 6z EPS yesterday which out of nowhere shifted cold to us. Nice to see other models suddenly following that lead.

[tyweather]

Now if only we could see improvements in the long term! Lots of variability but the mid term has cleared up to the cold side!

[AbbyJr]

I didn't follow the models myself during the December 2008 arctic blast but from what I've heard, the cold pattern locked in early but then there was a big rug pull as the event got closer. But then just prior to the event, the models reverted back to the colder solutions they initially showed.

Can someone who followed the models back then clarify this?

[Monty]

kma500mb.png

kma850temps.png

The kimchi model is on our side. It’s a done deal.

Honestly seeing these improvements within day 7 is certainly a nice change of pace.

[AbbyJr]

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 39780?s=20

[PortKells]

The kimchi model is on our side. It’s a done deal.

Honestly seeing these improvements within day 7 is certainly a nice change of pace.

It’s interesting. These things were depicted on and off in the models in the long range. But just no consistency. Then they backed off...but never entirely went away. I’m thinking that 2017 modified outbreak is the last time I’ve seen this much off and on. Really interesting few days of model tracking and a good opportunity for relative newbs like me to learn about how things can evolve.

[Wintergirl]

So the cold air coming is not an arctic air mass, meaning no outflow winds? I have hard time figuring this all out, sorry for the questions lately friends.

[AbbyJr]

It’s interesting. These things were depicted on and off in the models in the long range. But just no consistency. Then they backed off...but never entirely went away. I’m thinking that 2017 modified outbreak is the last time I’ve seen this much off and on. Really interesting few days of model tracking and a good opportunity for relative newbs like me to learn about how things can evolve.

I'm wondering if the inconsistency and lack of accurate long range predictability is due to the models inability to handle the MJO?

From what I understand, the models struggle with the MJO and the MJO is a major driver of the weather patterns.

[Bonovox]

It is nice to see short to mid term improvements. Also gives hope to the long term trending cooler in the coming days.

[PortKells]

I'm wondering if the inconsistency and lack of accurate long range predictability is due to the models inability to handle the MJO?

From what I understand, the models struggle with the MJO and the MJO is a major driver of the weather patterns.

And less airplane data from what I’ve read here a couple times.

[Hawk]

So the cold air coming is not an arctic air mass, meaning no outflow winds? I have hard time figuring this all out, sorry for the questions lately friends.

You may still get your outflow..too early to tell what exactly will happen. First we have to get that Arctic airmass here. It may struggle to get past the Coast mountains imo. Im a septic..obvi