February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Catnip
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

You can see the westward shift of the cold air when you compare last night's EPS run to the most recent.

12z
12Z.png
00Z
00z.png
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Monday morning EPS, 12Z vs 00Z

Much higher heights in the SE.

12Z
12Z.png
00Z
00z.png
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Catnip wrote: ↑Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:28 pm You can see the westward shift of the cold air when you compare last night's EPS run to the most recent.

12z
12Z.png

00Z
00z.png
Yup
It appears that there is always the Similkameen lobe that gets coldest :wave: :wave:
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Wintergirl wrote: ↑Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:07 pm So the cold air coming is not an arctic air mass, meaning no outflow winds? I have hard time figuring this all out, sorry for the questions lately friends.
No problem. We are all learning. :D

We can either get cold here via a cold onshore flow or an arctic outflow. Whats being modelled at the moment is arctic outflow.

So yes, outflow winds under the current modelled solution. :thumbup:
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by BhamMe »

How much for a ticket to get on the #teamsnow bus? Asking for a friend.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Simalkameen vortex!
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Abby_wx »

Wintergirl wrote: ↑Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:07 pm So the cold air coming is not an arctic air mass, meaning no outflow winds? I have hard time figuring this all out, sorry for the questions lately friends.
Looking like modified arctic air at this point. Windy, but not super cold... lows below freezing and highs around 0C to +3C. Colder in the eastern valley -- highs below freezing likely there. No guarantees at this point, though.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by tyweather »

Wintergirl wrote: ↑Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:07 pm So the cold air coming is not an arctic air mass, meaning no outflow winds? I have hard time figuring this all out, sorry for the questions lately friends.
Outflow winds would be likely in this scenario, moderate to locally strong, Sunday night to Tuesday.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Wintergirl »

Thanks for all the replies everyone....I love the outflow winds here so bring it on fingers crossed :D
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hound »

Hawk wrote: ↑Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:25 pm Im a septic..obvi :think: :think:
Hmmm.. :think:
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Per the 12z GFS...strongest winds over the south coast are from Monday evening through Tuesday morning.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

:think: :think:

At HR 72, the 18z GFS seems to be a bit further west with things than the 12z was.
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Stronger ridging/better amplification on the 18z.

18z
18z.png

12z
12Z.png
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Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

Catnip wrote: ↑Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:56 pm :think: :think:

At HR 72, the 18z GFS seems to be a bit further west with things than the 12z was.
Correct.....
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

^^^^^

Colder as a result.

Monday Morning.

18Z
18z.png
12Z
12Z.png
]
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2025-2026 Snowfall - ZERO.OOcm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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