February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Monty
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Temps are borderline for snow by Saturday. Setup reminds me of last January on the euro
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Esquimalt39 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:31 am What happened with that one?
Originally showed multiple snowstorms into Oregon, then Washington and then the south coast totalling over 100cm. Within 72HRS, models collapsed and we saw a overrunning snowfall followed by 10c rain and mild SW flow.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:30 am Yikes...euro potentially concerning. January 2011 scenario actually looks possible. :lol:
Still solid. I'm not concerned yet. We'll see what the EPS shows. :thumbup:
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:33 am Originally showed multiple snowstorms into Oregon, then Washington and then the south coast totalling over 100cm. Within 72HRS, models collapsed and we saw a overrunning snowfall followed by 10c rain and mild SW flow.
But did we have all the models including the Euro and EPS on our side during that one or was it mostly a GFS fantasy?
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:36 am But did we have all the models including the Euro and EPS on our side during that one or was it mostly a GFS fantasy?
Every model was showing similar. Then collapsed within 72hrs. Pretty wild stuff.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:33 am Originally showed multiple snowstorms into Oregon, then Washington and then the south coast totalling over 100cm. Within 72HRS, models collapsed and we saw a overrunning snowfall followed by 10c rain and mild SW flow.
It is always a bad idea to bet against Team 10ËšC Rain!
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by South Island »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:37 am Every model was showing similar. Then collapsed within 72hrs. Pretty wild stuff.
I’m pretty sure gfs operational was most bullish however the euro was not and neither were the ensembles. It still was a pretty epic rug pull though.

This situation does appear to be different. I would be nervous though if I was south of Seattle.
Last edited by South Island on Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

South Island wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:40 am I’m pretty sure gfs operational was most bullish however the euro was not and neither were the ensembles.
Pretty sure I recall that euro being similar to the GFS but I may be wrong. Nito or Monty probably remember.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

uh oh..starting to talk about rug pulls again..and the event hasnt even started yet :roll: :roll:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Well with our luck you know anything could happen.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:43 am Pretty sure I recall that euro being similar to the GFS but I may be wrong. Nito or Monty probably remember.
Let's hope this does not end the way January 2011 did. :ohbro:
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:48 am Let's hope this does not end the way January 2011 did. :ohbro:
We'll likely be fine. I'm probably getting too paranoid. ;)

Imagine the GEM leads the way on this one though. That 12z run retrogrades the PV from the prairies towards BC/WA/OR. :lol:
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:55 am We'll likely be fine. I'm probably getting too paranoid. ;)

Imagine the GEM leads the way on this one though. That 12z run retrogrades the PV from the prairies towards BC/WA/OR. :lol:
2011 was also a -QBO. This time we have a +QBO on our side, which favours amplified blocking. So I think that will help us. :thumbup:
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Anyone think we will see flakes in the air today anywhere beside E Valley? or just more cold rain :roll:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by tyweather »

Hawk wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:15 am Anyone think we will see flakes in the air today anywhere beside E Valley? or just more cold rain :roll:
Probably dry for us today. Only moisture in the eastern valley as the western slopes are providing upsloping lift with the westerly flow.
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