February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Does he mean -10.1c or below? Because YVR hit -10.0c on December 7th, 2013.

In Tyler’s defense, he said “below -10˚C.” -10 ≮ -10.

[AbbyJr]

In between.

I don't trust any scenario that has insane jet supression on a year like this. That said...colder onshore flow would promote more snow chances.

Especially with arctic air already in place.

Monty also suggested this ends up snowier rather than extreme cold. I'd agree at this point.

[LadnerWeather]

I'd go with the EPS at this point. Operational probably just an outlier. Likely colder on the 00Z tonight.

It’s better for the track of the low compared to the Op but it’s still quite a bit warmer..especially for this weekend. I guess we’ll see if it becomes a trend or not on tonights 00z runs

[VanCitySouth]

Especially with arctic air already in place.

Monty also suggested this ends up snowier rather than extreme cold. I'd agree at this point.

[Forrest Gump]

In between.

I don't trust any scenario that has insane jet supression on a year like this. That said...colder onshore flow would promote more snow chances.

Is in between more troubling,as in more snow chances?

Edit: Nm , seniors moment.

[Hound]

Must be starting to spill into the lower mainland now.
Temp is 5.1
But the DP has shot down to -4

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Especially with arctic air already in place.

Monty also suggested this ends up snowier rather than extreme cold. I'd agree at this point.

I’d prefer a nice dump of snow and temps below -10˚C, but I’d rather see snow than a dry (or mostly dry) blast, as long as the snow lasts for at least a day or two rather than immediately transitioning to mild rain and a melt-a-thon.

[Hawk]

Who’s official certified measuring stick? Scholastic, Grand N Toy, ?

ECs

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

ECs

At least 40 cm by the official Sardine measuring stick (5 mm to the cm).

[Walth]

In between.

I don't trust any scenario that has insane jet supression on a year like this. That said...colder onshore flow would promote more snow chances.

Just curious... what is it about this year that you think makes that unlikely:-) ?

[Hawk]

I agree Rubus. If we are cold all week and end up with a snow event that changes to rain before it ends...meh. another slushfestival. Spring please asap

[Typeing3]

18z GFS surface low/high for YVR next week...
Tuesday: -3c/1c
Wednesday: -4c/-2c
Thursday: -8c/-4c
Friday: -11c/-6c
Saturday: -10c/-3c

YPK (Pitt Meadows)...
Tuesday: -5c/-1c
Wednesday: -7c/-2c
Thursday: -12c/-6c
Friday: -14c/-7c
Saturday: -13c/-4c

YXX...
Tuesday: -8c/-3c
Wednesday: -11c/-6c
Thursday: -16c/-9c
Friday: -17c/-9c
Saturday: -15c/-6c

[Storm]

We lost Bono and the Euro this afternoon. We need them both back tonight.

[Typeing3]

18z GFS clips eastern BC with the western edge of the PV lobe late Thursday into Friday. Been trending west on recent runs.

gfs_z500_vort_namer_20.png

12z GEM on the other hand...

gem_z500_vort_namer_21.png

gem_z500_vort_namer_29.png

[Typeing3]

18z GFS ensembles:

ens_image.png