June 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

[Bonovox]

Worst case scenario: The runs verify and we get some lightning at the tail end in the alpine. Welcome to smoke fest 2021.

Best case scenario (Probably realistic): The models are over doing temps by 3-5c. Still sucks, but we can put up with it for a few days.

Wish cast scenario: We wake up on Friday morning to a major rug pull and end up with some marine cloud and seasonable temperatures. Throw in some rain too, but I won’t get too greedy.

[Glacier]

Oops. Well same story and here you go.

That's more like it! There's significant difference between the two. The GSF is completely bonkers, but this one is more like it.

[AbbyJr]

ecmwf-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-4363200.png

[Glacier]

Crazy to think that temperatures were below freezing yesterday morning.

diruanl.png

[Typeing3]

ecmwf-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-4363200.png

Could you upload one of those for Vancouver and/or Pitt Meadows too?

[AbbyJr]

Could you upload one of those for Vancouver and/or Pitt Meadows too?

ecmwf-deterministic-CYVR-daily_tmin_tmax-4363200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-CWHC-daily_tmin_tmax-4363200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-CWMM-daily_tmin_tmax-4363200.png

[Typeing3]

^Thanks Jr.

12z GFS keeps 850mb temps above 22c from Friday evening thru Tuesday morning, peaking at 25/26c on Sunday/Monday.

[AbbyJr]

^Thanks Jr.

12z GFS keeps 850mb temps above 22c from Friday evening thru Tuesday morning, peaking at 25/26c on Sunday/Monday.

Anytime

[Typeing3]

Monday morning 500mb height anomalies:

GFS

gfs_z500a_namer_21.png

ECMWF

ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.png

GEM

gem_z500a_namer_21.png

GEM is much cooler than the GFS and ECMWF as the ridge is further east. Small shifts like that will be the difference between a typical summer heatwave and a top tier event.

[AbbyJr]

Monday morning 500mb height anomalies:

GFS
gfs_z500a_namer_21.png
ECMWF
ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.png
GEM
gem_z500a_namer_21.png
GEM is much cooler than the GFS and ECMWF as the ridge is further east. Small shifts like that will be the difference between a typical summer heatwave and a top tier event.

Yup. It will be interesting to see which one verifies. For what it's worth, the GEM is usually too cold in the winter.

[Typeing3]

High res (4km) 12z WRF-GFS highs runs out till Friday. Looks like ~29c-32c for eastern Metro Van and the Fraser Valley.

wa_tsfc.83.0000.gif

[Typeing3]

Extended run has lower resolution (12km) but shows temps around 33-36c (likely 2-5c too high) on Saturday.

wa_tsfc.108.0000.gif

Similar temps on Sunday (again, likely running 2-5c too high + resolution issues)

wa_tsfc.132.0000.gif

Monday:

wa_tsfc.156.0000.gif

[BhamMe]

Monday morning 500mb height anomalies:

GFS
gfs_z500a_namer_21.png
ECMWF
ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.png
GEM
gem_z500a_namer_21.png
GEM is much cooler than the GFS and ECMWF as the ridge is further east. Small shifts like that will be the difference between a typical summer heatwave and a top tier event.

I look at these models and I think to myself...I'm glad that's not a winter pattern.

[Typeing3]

18z gfs looks a touch cooler on Friday and Saturday. Still showing temps around 100f inland on Sunday. Ridge doesn't move east quite as fast as the 12z so Monday looks warmer.

[Typeing3]

18z GFS highs for YVR/YXX

Friday: 26c/30c
Saturday: 28c/36c
Sunday: 32c/39c
Monday: 35c/44c
Tuesday: 24c/28c

Again, I'd subtract a good 4-5c from the Saturday-Sunday numbers to be more realistic... definitely knock off even more for Monday.

Just for fun though, here's what it's showing region wide for high temps on Monday.