October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Monty · Post by **Monty** » Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:37 am

Was just going to say. That Friday and Saturday period is looking crazy wet, in upslope areas especially. Still some uncertainty in where the rain train will setup shop.

Post by **Hound** » Wed Oct 13, 2021 11:38 am

Beautiful shot from Grouse last night. Looks like December.

image-31456-1634103619269.jpg

Forrest Gump · Post by **Forrest Gump** » Wed Oct 13, 2021 11:42 am

stuffradio wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:58 am We can get our Tilamook Cheese starting next month! The US border is reopening in November.

If they make spiced gouda I'll think about it.

AbbyJr · Post by **AbbyJr** » Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:36 pm

Monty wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:37 am Was just going to say. That Friday and Saturday period is looking crazy wet, in upslope areas especially. Still some uncertainty in where the rain train will setup shop.

Abbotsford still looks to be in the rain shadow despite seeing a significant amount of rain.

That said, it would be nice to see 100+ mm in a 24 hr period here for once. The record daily rainfall is still 95 mm recorded on November 3, 1971. October came close to matching or breaking that record in 2003 but didn't quite get there at 93 mm.

I wonder if Abbotsford will ever record 100+ mm in a day.

Monty · Post by **Monty** » Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:51 pm

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:36 pm Abbotsford still looks to be in the rain shadow despite seeing a significant amount of rain.

That said, it would be nice to see 100+ mm in a 24 hr period here for once. The record daily rainfall is still 95 mm recorded on November 3, 1971. October came close to matching or breaking that record in 2003 but didn't quite get there at 93 mm.

I wonder if Abbotsford will ever record 100+ mm in a day.

Is that 24hr period defined by a calendar day? Some times it comes down to luck as to when the heaviest rain falls, with a major storm being spread out over 2 calendar days but only lasting for 24hrs.

Sort of surprised Abby hasnâ€™t gone over 100 before. Even dry Victoria has done it.

AbbyJr · Post by **AbbyJr** » Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:29 pm

Monty wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:51 pm Is that 24hr period defined by a calendar day? Some times it comes down to luck as to when the heaviest rain falls, with a major storm being spread out over 2 calendar days but only lasting for 24hrs.

Sort of surprised Abby hasnâ€™t gone over 100 before. Even dry Victoria has done it.

Thats a really good point. I was referring to a 24 hour period from midnight to midnight. But its possible that Abbotsford has recorded 100+ mm of rain in a 24 hour period, just not from the midnight to midnight period.

AbbyJr · Post by **AbbyJr** » Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:56 pm

Special Weather Statement issued by Environment Canada for this upcoming weekend.

PortKells · Post by **PortKells** » Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:13 pm

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:56 pm Special Weather Statement issued by Environment Canada for this upcoming weekend.

Nice. I hope it's over for my soccer game Saturday.

Speaking of which, go Canada! And then go Canucks!

PortKells · Post by **PortKells** » Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:14 pm

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:29 pm Thats a really good point. I was referring to a 24 hour period from midnight to midnight. But its possible that Abbotsford has recorded 100+ mm of rain in a 24 hour period, just not from the midnight to midnight period.

A place in Saskatchewan once received 96 mm in one hour i was reading last night.

AbbyJr · Post by **AbbyJr** » Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:26 pm

PortKells wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:14 pm A place in Saskatchewan once received 96 mm in one hour i was reading last night.

Canada Goose · Post by **Canada Goose** » Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:10 pm

PortKells wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:14 pm A place in Saskatchewan once received 96 mm in one hour i was reading last night.

808 mm in 15 hours in Italy a few days ago.

PortKells · Post by **PortKells** » Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:42 pm

Canada Goose wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:10 pm 808 mm in 15 hours in Italy a few days ago.

Wow. Does that place still exist?!

Canada Goose · Post by **Canada Goose** » Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:09 pm

PortKells wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:42 pm Wow. Does that place still exist?!

Yes! It was an extreme event but SE France and SW Italy are used to receive 400-500 mm in 10-20 hours from Sept. to Nov.

Here are some world records:
1,825 mm in 24 hours.
1,340 mm in 12 hours.
840 mm in 6 hours.

Roberts Creeker · Post by **Roberts Creeker** » Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:13 pm

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:56 pm Special Weather Statement issued by Environment Canada for this upcoming weekend.

Yup, up for this area too.

"4:56 PM PDT Wednesday 13 October 2021
Special weather statement in effect for:

Sunshine Coast - Gibsons to Earls Cove
A wet and windy beginning to the weekend is in the forecast.
Rainfall totals could reach 75 to 150 mm over 2 days."

Roberts Creeker · Post by **Roberts Creeker** » Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:16 pm

Roberts Creeker wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:13 pm Yup, up for this area too.

"4:56 PM PDT Wednesday 13 October 2021
Special weather statement in effect for:

Sunshine Coast - Gibsons to Earls Cove
A wet and windy beginning to the weekend is in the forecast.
Rainfall totals could reach 75 to 150 mm over 2 days."

At least it's warm at night low of +10 high of +10 on Thur, +12 on Fri and +13 on Sat.

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