October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Typeing3
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Typeing3 »

Monty wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 5:29 pm Unseasonably low snow levels with that one around day 9
Maybe using '71-72 as an analogue isn't so crazy after all.

Most years (especially recently) the mountain (>1000m) snowpack doesn't really get going until late November. Snow began pilling up in late Oct 1971 and didn't all melt soon after since there was no big prolonged thawing period in early-mid November.
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Typeing3 wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 6:37 pm Maybe using '71-72 as an analogue isn't so crazy after all.

Most years (especially recently) the mountain (>1000m) snowpack doesn't really get going until late November. Snow began pilling up in late Oct 1971 and didn't all melt soon after since there was no big prolonged thawing period in early-mid November.
Man that would epic better than 2008, as it was strung out nicely through Dec/71 to March/72.
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

PortKells wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 5:48 pm About time we get off to an earlier snow season.
l don't know it's just got that good feel to it this year.
Thank you heat dome for changing things up for this winter. :awesome3:
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Looks like El Nito gave up on winter warmth this year and left town.
leto-summer-volny-sand-more-pesok-sea-pliazh-beach-wave-vaca.jpg
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Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Typeing3 »

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (2).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (3).png
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by John »

When will it rain again Wednesday night?
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by PortKells »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 9:20 pm l don't know it's just got that good feel to it this year.
Thank you heat dome for changing things up for this winter. :awesome3:
Its definitely got a feel to it! I don't know about a 10/10 winter but I'm feeling like at least average but hopefully better. Keeping in mind even average snowfall and temps would feel like a success lol.
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by AbbyJr »

Two significant windstorms shown on the 12Z GEM. One on Sunday evening and another one late Tuesday afternoon.

Sunday 8PM:
gem-all-vancouverski-gust_kmh-5130800.png

Tuesday 5PM:
gem-all-vancouverski-gust_kmh-5292800.png
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Last edited by AbbyJr on Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

PortKells wrote: Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:04 am Its definitely got a feel to it! I don't know about a 10/10 winter but I'm feeling like at least average but hopefully better. Keeping in mind even average snowfall and temps would feel like a success lol.
Yes indeed Kells still cautiously optimistic, can someone post the rainfall totals for the AR event l thought l saw Coal harbour had like 120mm. :shock:
since Friday up to Sunday l'm assuming.
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

John wrote: Mon Oct 18, 2021 9:50 am When will it rain again Wednesday night?
Kasia Bodurka filling in for Mark Madryga said Wednesday evening John. :wave: why do you have a hot date. :lol:
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

AbbyJr wrote: Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:25 am Two significant windstorms shown on the 12Z GEM. One on Sunday evening and another one late Tuesday afternoon.

Sunday 8PM:
gem-all-vancouverski-gust_kmh-5130800.png


Tuesday 5PM:
gem-all-vancouverski-gust_kmh-5292800.png
How strong for the central valley Jr. man?
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Monty »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:25 am Yes indeed Kells still cautiously optimistic, can someone post the rainfall totals for the AR event l thought l saw Coal harbour had like 120mm. :shock:
since Friday up to Sunday l'm assuming.
59AF9CED-881D-42A7-88C4-450D7CCADE88.jpeg
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North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Glacier »

71-72 was by FAR the snowiest winter on record in the southern interior. Snow depth in Kamloops hit 83cm. The next highest on record was 30cm under that (if I recall correctly).

So ya, bring on another one of those winters!
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by wetcoast91 »

:evilpine:
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by AbbyJr »

ecmwf-deterministic-albertabc-mslp_anom-5141600.png
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Central Abbotsford
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

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