October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion
- Catnip
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion
You are getting sleeeeeeeeeeeepy
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.
#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB
2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm
Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB
2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm
Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
- VanCitySouth
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion
Euro's trended the Sunday bomb eastward every run for 4 runs. I find that mildly concerning.
2023-24 season stats:
Climo 81 to 44 GFS
Season total: 39.0 cm + 3 traces
Peak depth: 28.0 cm (Jan 17)
Climo 81 to 44 GFS
Season total: 39.0 cm + 3 traces
Peak depth: 28.0 cm (Jan 17)
- AbbyJr
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion
Euro trend is concerning for those who don't want a damaging windstorm. Significant SE trend on the 12Z versus the 00Z.
00Z:
12Z:
00Z:
12Z:
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Central Abbotsford
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm
50m (164ft)
2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm
- Typeing3
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion
North Island landfall is more realistic. Deep lows usually curve north.
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#MrJanuary
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion
I agree but the Euro has trended SE with the track of the low on the 12Z today.
Central Abbotsford
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm
50m (164ft)
2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion
I'd say 50/50 because it does depend on a couple of factors, at least for impacts to the lower mainland.
#1 is whether the low is weakening or intensifying as it approaches the coast and #2 is track (SW to NE is most conducive to a big windstorm for our region, based on historical events).
As an example for both, here is an image showing the strength and track of low that caused the the December 2018 windstorm:
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#MrJanuary
- VanCitySouth
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion
NAM 18z also south and east of 12z. 12z missed the Island completely and this one makes landfall.
Funny how the mm5 version is so much closer to the GFS track (south Island). I wonder if it's because UW initialises both the mm5 NAM and WRF with the same inputs.
2023-24 season stats:
Climo 81 to 44 GFS
Season total: 39.0 cm + 3 traces
Peak depth: 28.0 cm (Jan 17)
Climo 81 to 44 GFS
Season total: 39.0 cm + 3 traces
Peak depth: 28.0 cm (Jan 17)
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion
Low fills and pretty much dissipates before moving across Northern Vancouver Island... non event for the Lower Mainland.
Fall/Winter 2023/24
Low min: -16.6C (Jan 12th)
Low max: -9.9C (Jan 12th)
Snowfall: 8.0 cm
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion
Here is a comparison of the December 20th, 2018 storm versus this upcoming storm as shown on the 12Z Euro for Sunday/Monday.
Based on what I can I see, there are some similarities but also some differences.
The December 20th, 2018 storm was less deep than this upcoming storm but it continued to deepen as it approached land. This upcoming storm, on the contrary, is deeper but it weakens as it approaches land. However, since it's significantly deeper than the 2018 storm, it ends up deeper when it reaches land despite weakening on approach. As for the track, this upcoming storm looks to be slightly further northwest than the 2018 storm.
December 20th, 2018:
Upcoming storm:
Based on what I can I see, there are some similarities but also some differences.
The December 20th, 2018 storm was less deep than this upcoming storm but it continued to deepen as it approached land. This upcoming storm, on the contrary, is deeper but it weakens as it approaches land. However, since it's significantly deeper than the 2018 storm, it ends up deeper when it reaches land despite weakening on approach. As for the track, this upcoming storm looks to be slightly further northwest than the 2018 storm.
December 20th, 2018:
Upcoming storm:
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Last edited by AbbyJr on Fri Oct 22, 2021 4:37 pm, edited 4 times in total.
Central Abbotsford
50m (164ft)
2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm
50m (164ft)
2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm
- PortKells
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