October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

VanCitySouth · Post by **VanCitySouth** » Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:53 am

Good grief. Can we not go one season without the battle of the birds? It's getting quite tiresome.

AbbyJr · Post by **AbbyJr** » Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:55 am

Heavy rain rates for Abbotsford on Thursday shown on the 12Z RGEM. Cold with a NE flow. Too bad this isn't December or January with the arctic air locked in.

Screen Shot 2021-10-25 at 9.59.05 AM.png

Coquitlam79 · Post by **Coquitlam79** » Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:16 am

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:13 am Sacramento had an incredible 138mm of rain yesterday. New all time daily record.

San Francisco had 102mm. 4th wettest day on record.

Also their wettest October since 1889. Analogue?

Those waterfalls in Yosemite must be roaring right now.

PortKells · Post by **PortKells** » Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:44 am

Sasquatch mountain here we gooooo!

Screenshot_20211025-104307-439.png

Typeing3 · Post by **Typeing3** » Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:44 am

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:55 am Heavy rain rates for Abbotsford on Thursday shown on the 12Z RGEM. Cold with a NE flow. Too bad this isn't December or January with the arctic air locked in.

Screen Shot 2021-10-25 at 9.59.05 AM.png

System tracking SW to NE. There's still model volatility as to the exact track but as mentioned yesterday it's a similar setup to the December 2017 and 2020 rain-to-snow events.

Similkameen and other parts of the southern interior could see a decent snowfall with this one (depending on how the low tracks).

Post by **Catnip** » Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:57 am

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:44 am System tracking SW to NE. There's still model volatility as to the exact track but as mentioned yesterday it's a similar setup to the December 2017 and 2020 rain-to-snow events.

Similkameeeeeeeeeeenz and other parts of the southern interior could see a decent snowfall with this one (depending on how the low tracks).

wetcoast91 · Post by **wetcoast91** » Mon Oct 25, 2021 11:46 am

That AR is trending North for Thurs and Fri. Big soaker....

Typeing3 · Post by **Typeing3** » Mon Oct 25, 2021 12:50 pm

Could be the first freeze of the season for us on Friday night/Saturday morning.

gfs_T2m_nwus_21.png

John · Post by **John** » Mon Oct 25, 2021 1:23 pm

VanCitySouth wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:53 am Good grief. Can we not go one season without the battle of the birds? It's getting quite tiresome.

Agree itÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s annoying but best to ignore like hawk said!

AbbyJr · Post by **AbbyJr** » Mon Oct 25, 2021 1:37 pm

12Z Euro shows heavy rain rates in Abbotsford Thursday.

ecmwf-deterministic-CYXX-tmp_qpf_snow-5163200.png

Glacier · Post by **Glacier** » Mon Oct 25, 2021 1:47 pm

It's interesting that the wind gusts at YXX are more than twice that of Pitt Meadows....

oct242.png

peakwindcot24.png

Roberts Creeker · Post by **Roberts Creeker** » Mon Oct 25, 2021 1:57 pm

Intense rain here right now. Not too much wind.

I had 3 trees come down overnight one a big hemlock and it's flattened my fence but it'll have to wait until the wind stops before I start cutting it up.

Is that it for wind? EC still has wind warning up and gusts 50 - 70 km until 5 pm but other than a couple of good ones it's just been pretty breezy.

Rubus_Leucodermis · Post by **Rubus_Leucodermis** » Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:43 pm

Definitely windier today than yesterday at BLI. Peak gust so far: 85 km/hr.

Just as glad it did not turn into a 36-hour-long continuous onslaught.

Post by **stuffradio** » Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:49 pm

All signs are pointing towards a warmer than normal November.

Post by **Abby_wx** » Mon Oct 25, 2021 3:29 pm

Much lighter wind here today and no measurable rain. A few drops a while ago.

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