November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... U8Y7Q&s=19

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 53574?s=20

[Monty]

Tomorrow night is looking insanely wet. Be prepared if you live in a flood prone area.

[AbbyJr]

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_precip_mm-7020800.png

gem-all-vancouverski-total_precip_mm-7020800.png

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_precip_mm-7020800.png

icon-all-vancouverski-total_precip_mm-7020800.png

[Hound]

Aaaand it’s going to be Kensington. Just signed a lease on a laneway house near 33rd and Knight, about 90 m elevation.

I have a friend in that exact area and she sends me snow pics all the time. That area does decent.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Ooop clown range alert!

I told you so!

[Roberts Creeker]

I need to get a rain gauge… anyone have est. mm number for Coquitlam so far?

I use one of those 1.7kg big square yogurt containers and ruler, it's not perfect because the sides are slightly sloped, the bottom has a slight raised area and it tends to blow away during wind warnings but it does give me a reasonably accurate result. One day I'll get around to doing something more precise but for now it's better than nothing and our local EC stations don't have rain gauges so at least I have something to go by, other than the level of my new ponds.

[Monty]

Ummm……

9097B0AA-7CCA-4827-A31A-0366BE581370.png

[Typeing3]

Tomorrow night is looking insanely wet. Be prepared if you live in a flood prone area.

00z ECMWF certainly upped the totals compared with the 12z run.

100-200mm across the lower mainland thru Monday afternoon.

[VanCitySouth]

Ummm……

9097B0AA-7CCA-4827-A31A-0366BE581370.png

Only 10 da...

Oh wait.

[wetcoast91]

Ummm……

9097B0AA-7CCA-4827-A31A-0366BE581370.png

Goes EAST.

[AbbyJr]

00z ECMWF certainly upped the totals compared with the 12z run.

100-200mm across the lower mainland thru Monday afternoon.

Even the HRDPS, which I find is often conservative with precipitation totals compared to the RGEM, is showing similar totals.

hrdps-vancouverski-total_precip_mm-7020800.png

[Typeing3]

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_precip_mm-7020800.png

gem-all-vancouverski-total_precip_mm-7020800.png

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_precip_mm-7020800.png

icon-all-vancouverski-total_precip_mm-7020800.png

Euro is normally very accurate within this range. With those totals I have a feeling the Coquitlam river could flood.

[Typeing3]

Even the HRDPS, which I find is often conservative with precipitation totals compared to the RGEM, is showing similar totals.

hrdps-vancouverski-total_precip_mm-7020800.png

HRDPS runs at a high resolution so it makes sense. Can make out the terrain and other small features.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (3).png

[Monty]

HRDPS runs at a high resolution so it makes sense. Can make out the terrain and other small features.

150mm or more here. Pretty crazy. Just an FYI for some out there but the 48hr precip maps for the 0z runs will include the rain that has fallen between 4pm and now.