November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

https://twitter.com/City_Abbotsford/sta ... pL8tw&s=19

[AbbyJr]

rgem-all-vancouverski-precip_24hr_inch-7676000.png

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Thank you!
Which one was that? There are so many I can't keep up. I do enjoy seeing ones shot in BC, it's fun seeing locations I know.

The one that made the news it mentioned Hallmark not using mixed marriages in there movies.

[PortKells]

Lock it in and throw away the key

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-8900000.png

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Lock it in and throw away the key



gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-8900000.png

And the AF is absolutely going bananas over this run.

[PortKells]

And the AF is absolutely going bananas over this run.

It's part of the fun to post maps like this especially with nothing but bad news lately. And to be fair we haven't even seen a 384 hour special yet so gotta start somewhere. But yes there are a couple of meatheads down there.

[Typeing3]

Interesting developments..


EPS:

EPS nov 21.png



GEFS:


GEFS 12z nov 21.png


GEPS:


GEPS nov 21.png

Again... 1961-62, 1974-75, 1975-76, 1981-82, 1998-99, 2001-02 and 2007-08ish. There's definitely a fair few other winters I missed but you get the point.

[Mattman]

I remember correctly that out of all the models, it was the GFS that first picked up shortly after Christmas '19 the mid-January 2020 cold snap. And if memory served me right, it was the first to pick up on the February '19 event as well. We don't go ape over the 18z, nor should it be written off. Something to put on the back burner considering it's picked up early an event before. And a ridge merger has been on again off again in the other models.

[AbbyJr]

I remember correctly that out of all the models, it was the GFS that first picked up shortly after Christmas '19 the mid-January 2020 cold snap. And if memory served me right, it was the first to pick up on the February '19 event as well. We don't go ape over the 18z, nor should it be written off. Something to put on the back burner considering it's picked up early an event before. And a ridge merger has been on again off again in the other models.

If I'm not mistaken, the GFS was also the first to pick up on the recent Pineapple Express. Low confidence the shown pattern will verify in 384 hours but the GFS is better than one may give credit.

[PortKells]

Again... 1961-62, 1974-75, 1975-76, 1981-82, 1998-99, 2001-02 and 2007-08ish. There's definitely a fair few other winters I missed but you get the point.

Are you saying beware of getting a crap sandwich again? Because I'm very ready for that. Watching long term models and ensembles is pure entertainment. Same as Watching the Canucks. aka probably a mistake but irresistible regardless. Also...a welcome distraction from our brutal current situation.

[PortKells]

If I'm not mistaken, the GFS was also the first to pick up on the recent Pineapple Express. Low confidence the shown pattern will verify in 384 hours but the GFS is better than one may give credit.

If an event is to show up at 300, 250, 200 etc hours then it usually has to show up at 384 first. But I need to see 3 or 4 runs like this before I'm even remotely intrigued. I know very little meteorology but watching models for several years now you pick up on clues, patterns, etc.

[John]

If an event is to show up at 300, 250, 200 etc hours then it usually has to show up at 384 first. But I need to see 3 or 4 runs like this before I'm even remotely intrigued. I know very little meteorology but watching models for several years now you pick up on clues, patterns, etc.

Let’s face it you are remotely intrigued already lol

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

It's part of the fun to post maps like this especially with nothing but bad news lately. And to be fair we haven't even seen a 384 hour special yet so gotta start somewhere. But yes there are a couple of meatheads down there.

I just don’t get it… every winter there’s all the drama over clown range model runs. And the big-time model riders claim it’s “fun,” despite how testy and disappointed they often get.

I had the bad fortune to get exposed to model-riding in autumn of 2008. That’s when a clown-range epic arctic blast ended up verifying, big time, in December. Took me a few years to realize how unusual that actually is, then I basically gave up on that game. Persistent disappointment is not fun.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I just don’t get it… every winter there’s all the drama over clown range model runs. And the big-time model riders claim it’s “fun,” despite how testy and disappointed they often get.

I had the bad fortune to get exposed to model-riding in autumn of 2008. That’s when a clown-range epic arctic blast ended up verifying, big time, in December. Took me a few years to realize how unusual that actually is, then I basically gave up on that game. Persistent disappointment is not fun.

I agree Rubes, fun to look at not realistic until it's in the believable range even then.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Are you saying beware of getting a crap sandwich again? Because I'm very ready for that. Watching long term models and ensembles is pure entertainment. Same as Watching the Canucks. aka probably a mistake but irresistible regardless. Also...a welcome distraction from our brutal current situation.

I agree Kells you need some kind of distraction.