November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

Dry Thursday/Friday, followed by more rain on Saturday.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_21.png

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[Catnip]

Really liking the progression of the 12Z GFS. Cold onshore flow with multiple snow chances and continuing to turn colder.

Please can this work out for once!!!

[Hawk]

The models (over the last few days) have been hinting at cold onshore flow (COF) for next week. Can't say I'm not getting a tiny bit excited about that prospect.

#surprises

Thats great for you, PornoMan and the Geek

[Typeing3]

Interesting to note that the Nooksack river also flooded twice in Nov 1990.

Major flood with the first extreme AR on the 7th-10th and then another flood (not quite as significant) due to the second AR (not as extreme as the first) on the 21st-24th.

Similar to how this month played out, and monthly rainfall totals stack up closely for some locations as well.

nooksack1990.PNG

[Catnip]

Thats great for you, PornoMan and the Geek

BUD-E, remember... COLD SSTs!!!!!

[Typeing3]

Really liking the progression of the 12Z GFS. Cold onshore flow with multiple snow chances and continuing to turn colder.

Please can this work out for once!!!

Looks like Dec 1971 again.

[Catnip]

gfs_T850_nwus_62.png

[Hawk]

Interesting to note that the Nooksack river also flooded twice in Nov 1990.

Major flood with the first extreme AR on the 7th-10th and then another flood (not quite as significant) due to the second AR (not as extreme as the first) on the 21st-24th.

Similar to how this month played out, and monthly rainfall totals stack up closely for some locations as well.
nooksack1990.PNG

Even more bizarre is how it happened in pretty much the same time period in 1990, and 14 days apart both times as well. Not to mention 2 major soakings each time, with the first event being the worst both times. At least both times we got a break in between?

[Hawk]

BUD-E, remember... COLD SSTs!!!!!

Yes i know. Great for hilldwellers, where it will likely look like a winter wonderland many times this season. For coastal dwellers and low elevation peeps, looks like sloppy snow and slush instead many times?
Thats why you to the hills...avoiding getting flooded and score on marginal snow events! I'm at about 330 feet in Langley, so riding the line here

[Typeing3]

Even more bizarre is how it happened in pretty much the same time period in 1990, and 14 days apart both times as well. Not to mention 2 major soakings each time, with the first event being the worst both times. At least both times we got a break in between?

Hope ended up with an astounding 861.2mm of rain in Nov 1990.

[Hawk]

Hope ended up with an astounding 861.2mm of rain in Nov 1990.

Whoa. That is ridiculous!! lol we are talking almost 3 feet of rain?

[Hawk]

I bet Nito has dreams about this every night.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_49.png

I think Nito is dreaming more about TWN winter outlook. Looks like persistent blocking all winter. Could we possibly lose him for all of Dec and Jan this winter?

[Storm]

T3 stole this from AF just for you. GEM somewhat like the GFS. Credit goes to Rob who is awesome.

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[Canada Goose]

Hope ended up with an astounding 861.2mm of rain in Nov 1990.

928.4 mm (rain + snow): https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... imeframe=2

[wetcoast91]

Getting that feeling that the hammer could drop in 8-14 days.

Saturday's system looks like December 22, 2020 on some runs. There is some colder air to work with on the Northern side of it.