December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Bonovox
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Storm wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:10 am GEM is bad too, has well over a foot by the end of the run. Similar to GFS colder.
Pretty similar on Monday too.
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

stuffradio wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:44 am I got like 1-3 cm of snow last year so this would be a massive 100% win.
Thats actually quite embarrassing :cry: :cry:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by tyweather »

Storm wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:34 am gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-9105200.png
Maybe the GFS really is measured in cm and not inches. Then it is similar to the icon.
Why not try cycling to work, grocery store, anywhere!
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Monday morning will be interesting as per the 12Z GFS. Surface temperatures around +2c, 925mb temperatures -1c to -2c and a northeast wind.
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:21 am Monday morning will be interesting as per the 12Z GFS. Surface temperatures around +2c, 925mb temperatures -1c to -2c and a northeast wind.
Heavier precip rates would do it.

:think: :think:
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Catnip wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:23 am Heavier precip rates would do it.

:think: :think:
NE wind would be downslope off the Coast Mountains, which would work against heavier rates, wouldn’t it?
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hound »

From yesterday:

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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:32 am NE wind would be downslope off the Coast Mountains, which would work against heavier rates, wouldn’t it?
Not quite. There is no dry colder air or pressure gradient to really bring that element into play. The low to mid level will be nearly saturated. We may see a NE wind but it will be lighter once precip falls.
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Catnip wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:23 am Heavier precip rates would do it.

:think: :think:
Yeah, I think precip type is going to depend a lot on intensity.
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

It's okay, the 12Z Euro is going to jump on board #teamsnow and all will be fine.





I hope.
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by John »

To early for snow Abby east. Need to dry out first. Hopefully gfs is wrong :thumbdown:
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

This is going to be a nowcast bite your nails type event. Maybe a degree to warm like usual? Maybe right in the sweet spot. Good news is we still have time on our side 4 days out. Bad news is we still have time on our side :lol:

I expect rain in Richmond but if I see a snowflake I will crack a beer and be amazed.
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Weather101 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:53 am This is going to be a nowcast bite your nails type event. Maybe a degree to warm like usual? Maybe right in the sweet spot. Good news is we still have time on our side 4 days out. Bad news is we still have time on our side :lol:

I expect rain in Richmond but if I see a snowflake I will crack a beer and be amazed.
Catnip man and Pomoman will probably do well. The rest of us will have to wait and see. :shock:
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:55 am Catnip man and Pomoman will probably do well. The rest of us will have to wait and see. :shock:
Thankfully we are entering this pattern in December and not Feb or March. Better odds for something at sea-level this time of year.

Additionally, if this round doesn't work out for everyone, we are still very early in the season. I do believe everyone will be happy this winter. Just a gut feeling.

:dunno:

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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:55 am Catnip man and Pomoman will probably do well. The rest of us will have to wait and see. :shock:
100m areas in Maple Ridge, Surrey, North Delta, North Van, Coquitlam and Burnaby should do well.

South Surrey, Vancouver, Richmond and E Valley make see lighter precip with the trajectory of the low.
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