January 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Monty]

OT but that winter wildfire is Colorado is unreal. 1000 homes burned and now that area is experiencing a snowstorm.

[Catnip]

WRF is generous over the next 4 days.

5C92BC6E-C634-49B1-BD0A-49D53526D297.gif

Not bad. That model isn’t usually very generous.

[Storm]

Euro snowfall map until 10 am. tomorrow

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

925mb progressively cooling.

925th.us_nw.png

[Catnip]

Euro 4am tom

24EFBFE1-5818-41B3-B0E0-441E32C25943.jpeg

[Storm]

Tuesday morning, more snow.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_nw.png

925 mb.

925th.us_nw-1.png

[Catnip]

925 Monday and Tuesday am

Gradually cooling, as Storm mentioned.

8C254B3B-91F0-4BE0-B54D-38E6050DA87E.png

D303D731-1AD6-4D8F-A242-BA138B1E39F2.png

[Catnip]

Now till 4am Mon

633AE164-D7B0-48B5-B2ED-D0E3D59865B8.jpeg

4am Mon to 4am Tues

FC19BA1E-6138-4D77-ADFE-FF868E0494E4.jpeg

[PortKells]

Good post. I’ve definitely started to post less recently because of that.

That sucks. Cmon guys we can do better. we’re not pros at least most of us.

Maybe there’s some model burnout going on. It’s been an intense several months.

[Hawk]

Everything is clown range until 12 hours out apparently.

We should just stop posting maps of anything beyond 12 hours according to some of the posts I’ve read recently.

Pretty much
Look at what happened this am. 5 to 9cm of snow. Even tho EC kinda called it, most people on here closed the book on snow chances with this front. I dunno.

[Catnip]

Tues -weds 4ams

DF48B783-B15E-4961-8585-6E0AA08F7E51.jpeg

[VanCitySouth]

Now till 4am Mon

633AE164-D7B0-48B5-B2ED-D0E3D59865B8.jpeg

4am Mon to 4am Tues
FC19BA1E-6138-4D77-ADFE-FF868E0494E4.jpeg

I am going to question at least the first map and say most of that is either cold rain or Teflon for Metro Van given 925s largely near or above 0 until Mon morning.

[PortKells]

Now till 4am Mon

633AE164-D7B0-48B5-B2ED-D0E3D59865B8.jpeg

4am Mon to 4am Tues
FC19BA1E-6138-4D77-ADFE-FF868E0494E4.jpeg

Wtf

[Hawk]

Watch out for the squall

Good point Nito.
I was going to say the same thing once the front actually comes ashore who thinks it will change from rain showers to heavy snow in some areas? My money is on that.

[PortKells]

I am going to question at least the first map and say most of that is either cold rain or Teflon for Metro Van given 925s largely near or above 0 until Mon morning.

I can’t remember, we want -2 at 925 to get all snow?

[Monty]

I am going to question at least the first map and say most of that is either cold rain or Teflon for Metro Van given 925s largely near or above 0 until Mon morning.

Agreed. Tuesday morning looks pretty interesting atm. With a wave of moisture arriving during the early morning hours.