July 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[VanCitySouth]

Remains to be seen. For sure the upper level smoke should impact temps Thurs onwards.

Full on blazing heat tomorrow. Think it will overperform in the Fraser Valley tomorrow with 40C possible.

This confidence should have been taken into the heat wave prediction contest. We could have used the fanfare of an extra entrant Nito.

[Typeing3]

Don't think this will come close to the great heatwave of July 1941 (in terms of extreme heat + duration). However, in case, here are some observed high/low temps from that event from some stations across the Lower Mainland:

New Westminster
July 13: 33.3c/16.1c
July 14: 33.9c/20.0c
July 15: 35.6c/21.7c
July 16: 37.2c/21.1c
July 17: 35.6c/21.7c
July 18: 32.8c/18.3c

Coquitlam Lake
July 13: 32.8c/11.1c
July 14: 34.4c/13.9c
July 15: 36.1c/15.6c
July 16: 36.7c/17.2c
July 17: 35.0c/18.9c
July 18: 30.6c/20.6c

Maple Ridge (Alouette Power House)
July 13: 34.4c/15.6c
July 14: 35.0c/17.2c
July 15: 36.7c/19.4c
July 16: 38.3c/22.2c
July 17: 37.8c/22.2c
July 18: 33.9c/23.3c

Mission (Stave Falls)
July 13: 34.4c/13.3c
July 14: 36.7c/15.6c
July 15: 38.9c/17.8c
July 16: 39.4c/20.6c
July 17: 37.8c/20.6c
July 18: 34.4c/23.3c

Abbotsford (Upper Sumas)
July 13: 33.3c/10.0c
July 14: 34.4c/12.8c
July 15: 34.4c/14.4c
July 16: 37.2c/18.3c
July 17: 35.0c/18.3c
July 18: 33.3c/20.0c

Agassiz
July 13: 33.3c/13.3c
July 14: 35.0c/17.2c
July 15: 37.2c/19.4c
July 16: 37.8c/21.1c
July 17: 36.1c/21.7c
July 18: 33.3c/20.6c

Hope
July 13: 37.2c/13.3c
July 14: 37.8c/18.9c
July 15: 39.4c/19.4c
July 16: 38.3c/20.6c
July 17: 36.1c/21.1c
July 18: 32.8c/20.6c

[Typeing3]

This confidence should have been taken into the heat wave prediction contest. We could have used the fanfare of an extra entrant Nito.

He never enters the contests!

[VanCitySouth]

He never enters the contests!

I wonder if it's because the DOOMcasting isn't actually what pans out 99% of the time

[Typeing3]

High res (1.33km) 12z WRF-GFS high temps tomorrow (1st pic) and Wednesday (2nd pic) .

wa_tsfc.35.0000.gif

wa_tsfc.59.0000.gif

[stuffradio]

September is just around the corner ...and then its all downhill from there...in the temp department

At least we get our Egggrog soon and Turkey

[wetcoast91]

I wonder if it's because the DOOMcasting isn't actually what pans out 99% of the time

Doomcasting = reality.

Smokey summers from 2015 onwards (except for 1-2 years). Unprecendented heatwave in 2021. Catastrophic flooding in 2021. Another record breaking heatwave looming in 2022. Global temp anomalies for June 2022 depict an awful image.

Doomcasting though.

[Abby_wx]

I'm out at YVR today... currently 24C with a refreshing breeze. The humidex says 31, but I don't really notice it. Feels very pleasant.

[VanCitySouth]

Doomcasting = reality.

Smokey summers from 2015 onwards (except for 1-2 years). Unprecendented heatwave in 2021. Catastrophic flooding in 2021. Another record breaking heatwave looming in 2022. Global temp anomalies for June 2022 depict an awful image.

Doomcasting though.

Eh. I don't think this heat wave is going to be much to write home about tbh. Seems pretty garden variety to me based on the surface maps.

The doomcasting quip was a poorly conveyed joke (the internet isn't the best medium), but you gotta admit, typically you chime in with the absolute worst case scenario.

I'll gladly admit you're quite often correct, but I'm willing to bet there's no 40 in the FV stations tomorrow (Abbotsford Agassiz and Hope).

Also for the record I'm on the "climate is going haywire and we're sorta screwed" side. I'm just very defeatist about it because humanity (or its leadership) also sucks, at large, so I see no point in beating a stillborn horse.

Not dead, because let's be honest it was never born.

[Glacier]

Humidex is currently 41...

current5.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Humidex is currently 41...

current5.png

Weird that Warfield is No. 8 on that list yet Trail is nowhere to be seen.

[Glacier]

Weird that Warfield is No. 8 on that list yet Trail is nowhere to be seen.

Warfield is Trail. There are only 126 hourly weather stations in BC, and many are duplicates (EC and NAV Canada stations at the same location) and many others are coastal lighthouses.

Only 8 weather stations in all of the Kootenays.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Warfield is Trail. There are only 126 hourly weather stations in BC, and many are duplicates (EC and NAV Canada stations at the same location) and many others are coastal lighthouses.

Only 8 weather stations in all of the Kootenays.

Trail proper will be several degrees hotter in that case. If I remember correctly (been a while since I was there), Warfield is uphill a ways from Trail.

[Roberts Creeker]

I'm out at YVR today... currently 24C with a refreshing breeze. The humidex says 31, but I don't really notice it. Feels very pleasant.

Must be nice! 28.4c in Sechelt and 26.2c outside, house has just passed the outside temp and is at 27.2...tooo hot imo.

Hot today but nowhere near the high of July 26, 2018 of 31.8c.

[Glacier]

Trail proper will be several degrees hotter in that case. If I remember correctly (been a while since I was there), Warfield is uphill a ways from Trail.

The station is down below Warfield. I suspect that it's overexposed because it's always hotter than Castlegar.