October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

[Coquitlam79]

Looks like Western Washington could see flooding according to the Euro. GFS ensembles a little more North with the heaviest rain. It's a little early but as was mentioned there are recently burned areas and ground is dry and hard. It all depends on rainfall rates in situations like this. We've had similar drought breaking flood events in our area such as October 1984 (Thanksgiving), and the big flood of October 2003.

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[Coquitlam79]

In any event it's looking like we won't end up anywhere near the driest October. I'd be shocked if the models did a 180 at this point. Except the GFS but that model has been garbage lately. Always look at the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day, they're using a model blend, weighted toward the recently better performing and consistent models. I've noticed that the cpc sometimes is giving more credence (and therefore more confident)to the Canadian model than to the GFS that says a lot about the GFS.

[tyweather]

The clown range has spoken. Snow on the smashed Halloween pumpkins

[stuffradio]

12Z GFS going with over 100mm of rain before Halloween...

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[Catnip]

1st fall storm?

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[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Clown range, but it could happen. Have seen a dusting fall in the first week of November before.

P.S.: I see tyweather beat me to it.

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[wetcoast91]

1st fall storm?

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Too stormy. Toss it out.

[Bonovox]

I’m going to go for so many walks in the rain. It will be awesome.

[Storm]

I’m going to go for so many walks in the rain. It will be awesome.

Lol, Bono. Do you want to take my dog with you? I much rather prefer the snow.

[wetcoast91]

I’m going to go for so many walks in the rain. It will be awesome.

+12C and rain will feel great for once.

[stuffradio]

12Z CMC shows the same >100mm of rain through 10 days The GFS is actually wetter I think, which is a rare occurrence.

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[PortKells]

Clown range, but it could happen. Have seen a dusting fall in the first week of November before.

P.S.: I see tyweather beat me to it.

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It's go time!

[Monty]

I love summer but I’m ready for fall storm season. I see some models are really tanking the PNA next week. We could see a decent storm cycle as we often see some cyclogenesis in closer to the coast when the PNA goes crazy low.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

https://youtu.be/eOUkA7Gi4gc

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I love summer but I’m ready for fall storm season. I see some models are really tanking the PNA next week. We could see a decent storm cycle as we often see some cyclogenesis in closer to the coast when the PNA goes crazy low.

The Euro is already hinting at exactly that.