November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Roberts Creeker]

Geesh kinda looks like the venue emptied after our special guest skipper Gimpers the EURO.

Yah, midnight strikes and they all turn into pumpkins...or maybe Christmas trees at this time of year.

[Typeing3]

00z GEFS

Day 6

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_25.png

Day 7

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_29.png

Day 8

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_33.png

Day 9

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_37.png

[Typeing3]

00z GEFS
850mb temp anomalies
Day 6-10

gfs-ens_T850a_namer_fh144-240.gif

[Typeing3]

00z GEPS

Day 6

gem-ens_z500a_namer_25.png

Day 7

gem-ens_z500a_namer_29.png

Day 8

gem-ens_z500a_namer_33.png

Day 9

gem-ens_z500a_namer_37.png

[Typeing3]

00z GEPS
850mb temp anomalies
Day 6-10

gem-ens_T850a_namer_fh144-240.gif

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (15).png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (16).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (17).png

[Typeing3]

20221124090759-7e56ea1b275cdbdc05b5d977707feb5197377c1a.png

[Catnip]

Just looked at the 00z euro

That first “troff” (in the more believable range) keeps trending colder,

Monday am

60FC4DA9-EAFC-449E-96E1-76301D157682.png

Tuesday am

005A6363-2D91-43BB-B303-FF4898E396A8.png

Then things just get down right silly on Thursday

0DB4B3B6-087A-4591-A25C-EB2F6BF53A34.png

[Mattman]

https://twitter.com/xendrEcon/status/15 ... 0973411328

Is it too early to spike the football? Found this tweet from a couple weeks ago. Of course, being a weather weenie--whether east or west coast--means being part politician and seeing what you want to see. So, despite that all the required oscillations to dump cold air in the west are pointing in that direction, that be damned because the Sky Net learning model says otherwise. Here's the political part: 1. transient cold in the east with relative protracted cold in the west would still be a win for them; 2. a protracted cold pattern in the west is normally succeeded by protracted cold in the east; 3. It could get cold in the east by some other mechanism from what their Sky Net model spat out, they claim a win that it got cold and hope no one notices the model was still wrong. Grrr. It's so slimy. Although Vlad is off his rocker trolling him with clown range charts, at least someone is calling bs. There, I feel better getting that first world problem off my chest.

[Storm]

this guy. Blizzard
https://twitter.com/vlad_rad/status/159 ... wd3mg&s=19

[Antares]

After record warmth in October and the first half of this month, it has been colder than normal, dry, and very windy here. Not much snow yet...under 2cm.

Looking good for you guys again!

[SouthSardiswx]

this guy. Blizzard

WPro's kid l knew it.

[SouthSardiswx]

Is it too early to spike the football? Found this tweet from a couple weeks ago. Of course, being a weather weenie--whether east or west coast--means being part politician and seeing what you want to see. So, despite that all the required oscillations to dump cold air in the west are pointing in that direction, that be damned because the Sky Net learning model says otherwise. Here's the political part: 1. transient cold in the east with relative protracted cold in the west would still be a win for them; 2. a protracted cold pattern in the west is normally succeeded by protracted cold in the east; 3. It could get cold in the east by some other mechanism from what their Sky Net model spat out, they claim a win that it got cold and hope no one notices the model was still wrong. Grrr. It's so slimy. Although Vlad is off his rocker trolling him with clown range charts, at least someone is calling bs. There, I feel better getting that first world problem off my chest.

Absolutely outstanding write up FloorMatt, so basically Cohen got it wrong although they did get their brief Arctic intrusion but wasn't he saying cold for the east straight through December. since you can't solve the rest of the world problems can you give me a hint at least what Santa is bringing me for Christmas.

[PortKells]

You're looking a little sheepish PtKells. Great avatar!

Thanks! Can't wait to see them wandering aimlessly through the snow again this year, wondering who stole all of their grass

[SouthSardiswx]

After record warmth in October and the first half of this month, it has been colder than normal, dry, and very windy here. Not much snow yet...under 2cm.

Looking good for you guys again!

Ants, l thought you were hibernating, l saw a Global news story from Cranbrook the orher day looks like they have sonw on the ground.
I remember last winter you were saying it was not what you expected pretty dry watch this winter will be massive.