December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

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00z ECMWF ensembles:

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00z GEM ensembles:

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[Roberts Creeker]

00z GFS ensembles:
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Thanks Typeing!

Merry Christmas!

[Feetz of Snow]

Merry Christmas All!

[Typeing3]

Merry Christmas!


Here's one from the archives...
Frozen Lost Lagoon on Christmas Eve, 1983.

[wetcoast91]

00z GFS ensembles:
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00z ECMWF ensembles:
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00z GEM ensembles:
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Ridguary!!!

[AbbyJr]

The 12Z models have taken away any chance of arctic air in the long range.

Still could revert back though. Models are always chaotic leading up to and during a SSW event. But we might have to write off this winter.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-4736800.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-4736800.png

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[Coquitlam79]

After todays system, It looks like a lot of split flow for the rest of the month and then more ridging for 1st week in January. Typical moderate El Nino stuff.

[wetcoast91]

The 12Z models have taken away any chance of arctic air in the long range.

Still could revert back though. Models are always chaotic leading up to and during a SSW event. But we might have to write off this winter.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-4736800.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-4736800.png

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-4736800.png

Phil is called a troll but he's right in this case.

A SSW event would favour an Eastern CONUS PV drop at this point with the current El Nino strength. We would only have a 2-3 day window before any arctic air slides well east.

[AbbyJr]

Phil is called a troll but he's right in this case.

A SSW event would favour an Eastern CONUS PV drop at this point with the current El Nino strength. We would only have a 2-3 day window before any arctic air slides well east.

That is the likely outcome. Although the January 2019 SSW did end up favouring the West but it was also a much weaker El Niño.

[Bonovox]

Merry Christmas!

[stuffradio]

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[Hound]

Anyone else experience the short intense wind storm last night around midnight? Blew a bunch of stuff around here.

Seems EC recorded S 52 gust 78 at Abby at 1AM last night. My guess was 80k here.

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... 2764158163

[PortKells]

The 12Z models have taken away any chance of arctic air in the long range.

Still could revert back though. Models are always chaotic leading up to and during a SSW event. But we might have to write off this winter.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-4736800.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-4736800.png

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-4736800.png

I never really saw arctic potential there, just a better pattern for the mountains. I think this winter was always pretty unlikely to happen. Still time though.

[stuffradio]

I never really saw arctic potential there, just a better pattern for the mountains. I think this winter was always pretty unlikely to happen. Still time though.

Yes we will see. I don't have high "hopes" or "expectations" for snow this winter, but there's always a chance. If it happens it happens and that would be exciting and if not, we always have next year

We gain 30 seconds of light tomorrow.

[AbbyJr]

I never really saw arctic potential there, just a better pattern for the mountains. I think this winter was always pretty unlikely to happen. Still time though.

Unfortunately, the odds are in favour of a dud this winter. But next winter could be very interesting if we crash into La Niña.

Edit: Winter is coming in February. Only 1080 hrs away.

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