January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[Monty]

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-7331200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-wcan-t2m_c_anom-7331200.png

Wow. That’s a pretty good ensemble.

[Monty]

South of the border they are already measuring snow in feet. It’s gonna be rough on there if this thing falls apart.

[PortKells]

South of the border they are already measuring snow in feet. It’s gonna be rough on there if this thing falls apart.

Same could be said of any year. At the end of the day, having done this for a few years....you know its a long shot at the best of times. Just enjoy the ride and see what comes.

[Monty]

My gut feeling on this initially is that the cold is going to end up digging too much over the ocean and we get cold onshore flow.

Having said that, my forecast for December was a total bust this year so I could be way off.

[Typeing3]

But we’ve hit gold 3 years in a row.

Depends on what metric one uses to quantity what gold means in winter around here. For example, the last cold month at YVR was December 2021.

[Typeing3]

My gut feeling on this initially is that the cold is going to end up digging too much over the ocean and we get cold onshore flow.

Having said that, my forecast for December was a total bust this year so I could be way off.

That would be in line with the late January patterns in 2002 and 2008.

[John]

Cold is coming pretty much a given now even PK is on board!

[wetcoast91]

My gut feeling on this initially is that the cold is going to end up digging too much over the ocean and we get cold onshore flow.

Having said that, my forecast for December was a total bust this year so I could be way off.

Probably a ridgy end to the month.

Things will probably change by mid Feb but I do not foresee serious cold this season which may crush the souls of our southern friends.

Could always be wrong though!

[PortKells]

Probably a ridgy end to the month.

Things will probably change by mid Feb but I do not foresee serious cold this season which may crush the souls of our southern friends.

Could always be wrong though!

There is one member of last nights EPS that supports your ridge.

Serious cold? jury is still out. Ridge? Almost no chance.

ens_image.png

[wetcoast91]

There is one member of last nights EPS that supports your ridge.

Serious cold? jury is still out. Ridge? Almost no chance. ens_image.png

GFS keeps kicking the can.

[PortKells]

GFS keeps kicking the can.

When you get to the point when you're using outlier GFS OPs, you know you're just being obtuse. Here is the ensemble.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-7201600.png

The EPS kind of stepped back a bit, still pretty decent.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-7223200.png

[wetcoast91]

When you get to the point when you're using outlier GFS OPs, you know you're just being obtuse. Here is the ensemble.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-7201600.png

The EPS kind of stepped back a bit, still pretty decent.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-7223200.png

Chilly onshore flow wouldn't be so bad.

[PortKells]

Chilly onshore flow wouldn't be so bad.

That's the spirit! Take the kids skiing, sledding on SFU, etc. Then the real cold hits in early Feb we all live happily ever after.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

There is one member of last nights EPS that supports your ridge.

Serious cold? jury is still out. Ridge? Almost no chance. ens_image.png

Looks like ensemble mean drops to around -7˚C in deep clown range… that’s about the point where things start to get interesting.

[Typeing3]

Chilly onshore flow wouldn't be so bad.

Lots of heavy wet snow around here in late January 2002 and 2008 from chilly onshore flow.