December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

[East Chilliwack]

Well East Chilliwack you finally have me beat! 20211204_084022.jpg

4cm and snowing nicely!

[Typeing3]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ensembleator ... 3585128448

[Bonovox]

More to the point, ratios don't matter when it doesn't snow. GFS couldn't even get the precip type correct.

ECMWF, ICON, HRDPS and NAM did much better in that regard.

The GFS continues to haunt snow lovers across the south coast.

In all seriousness, the Euro is still king and the HRDPS is surprisingly accurate once you're in the 12 hour window.

[stuffradio]

12Z GFS says 6-12” by Monday sometime…

95BF1FBF-ABBC-427B-B6A2-C4C4A46545C6.png

[Bonovox]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/146 ... 59946?s=20

[Typeing3]

12Z GFS says 6-12” by Monday sometime… 95BF1FBF-ABBC-427B-B6A2-C4C4A46545C6.png

0.6-1.2" of cold rain more like.

[Catnip]

0.6-1.2" of cold rain more like.

New forum rule.

No more posting GFS snowfall maps.

[Antares]

Warmed up to -3C now. Nice big flakes coming down.

[Canada Goose]

My forecast was wrong... It's 0.0000000000000001 cm.

BTW, -46.0°C in Yukon this morning.

https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/stat ... 6232045568

[HughCorne]

Heaviest snow of the day right now, last hurrah for this round

[Typeing3]

My forecast was wrong... It's 0.0000000000000001 cm.

To be fair, your 0.00001cm prediction was until Wednesday. We may get get 0.5cm on Monday morning.

But yeah, it's all cold rain in our area this morning.

[wetcoast91]

The GFS continues to haunt snow lovers across the south coast.

In all seriousness, the Euro is still king and the HRDPS is surprisingly accurate once you're in the 12 hour window.

True, the GFS is unable to handle snow events within 72-84 hours. It will maintain a solution throughout. Mondays system is an open wave, with scattered light precip and drizzle based on the HRDPS and ECMWF with negligible precip totals up here that may equate to a dusting of snow down to 200-300m ,yet the GFS is still showing a potent moisture column and 5-10cm of snow.

[PortKells]

Typeing, I know where your frustration comes from. These marginal snowfalls just never do seem to over perform. Luckily, there are some signs that real west-based cold air might be on our way. The GEPS brings it within 300 hours, and that model basically never shows you something fake like the ****ing GFS.

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-9656000.png

[PortKells]

Of course, if things keep getting moved back we're suddenly into February again watching Seattle get crushed or something. I'm optimistic about the holiday period but I could easily see it just turning into nothing.

[HughCorne]

3cm total for this event, a win in my books!