November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

LOL… gotta love the American forum. Some haruspications are showing a cooling trend in the third week of December and the usual characters are getting hyper-excited about a replay of some epic events from 1950 or the 1890’s being virtually a lock.

They are so dramatic down there. One good run and its 1950's epic and then a bad run and its winter cancel.

[Antares]

Cypress just updated their cameras to live streaming now, finally!

https://cypressmountain.com/downhill-co ... s-and-cams

[AbbyJr]

More CFS Control run model fantasy.

cfs-daily-all-c00-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-0064000.png

cfs-daily-all-c00-nhemi-t2m_c_anom_7day-0064000.png

[Typeing3]

Inversion could start next Wednesday. 00z GFS ensembles hint it could be fairly long lasting.

[AbbyJr]

Inversion could start next Wednesday. 00z GFS ensembles hint it could be fairly long lasting.

Would that mean widespread low elevation fog?

[Typeing3]

Would that mean widespread low elevation fog?

Yep.

[AbbyJr]

Improvements on the 00Z Euro Ensembles.

00Z:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-7731200.png

12Z:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-7688000.png

[Catnip]

Improvements on the 00Z Euro Ensembles.

GEFS says not so much.

D1F0A7CC-330B-48BA-AD25-4698BB167E90.png

[Hawk]

So basically..the models are struggling again. Past day 5 or so, who knows Then past day 7-8, its a real toss up.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

So basically..the models are struggling again. Past day 5 or so, who knows Then past day 7-8, its a real toss up.

Some of it is just clown range being clown range, but some of it is clown range being even clownier than normal due to the pandemic resulting in fewer commercial flights resulting in less atmospheric data. At least that’s my theory, and why I am putting even less stock in clown-range prognostications than I normally do.

[AbbyJr]

GEFS says not so much.

D1F0A7CC-330B-48BA-AD25-4698BB167E90.png

I'd trust the EPS long before the GEFS.

[PortKells]

So basically..the models are struggling again. Past day 5 or so, who knows Then past day 7-8, its a real toss up.

Probably a good stance to take right now. Based on what we've seen, I think the East will get theirs first, as things seem to often go. But maybe that's not a bad thing, because as of now that long range blast looks pretty meek.

[AbbyJr]

Probably a good stance to take right now. Based on what we've seen, I think the East will get theirs first, as things seem to often go. But maybe that's not a bad thing, because as of now that long range blast looks pretty meek.

You wouldn't know it browsing the American forums.

[wetcoast91]

You wouldn't know it browsing the American forums.

No decent signals anywhere to indicate any meaningful change over the next 2-3 weeks. They are cherry picking runs to fit the narriative of a major 1950's outbreak.

I am looking forward to dry conditions.

[Bonovox]

PNA forecasted to tank mid December on the EPS.

#lateDec