February 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[PortKells]

I’m only talking about the Saturday night event. Tough to speculate on amounts for anything next week. Probably more to come but temps will warm slightly for a time next week. I think we might see another shot of arctic air during the first week of March.

That graph shows most likely 15-25 cm in Pitt Meadows by the end of Sunday. Like I say though, with compaction and melting you probably have less depth.

[PortKells]

Interesting take on next week from the euro.

D21C5B6B-AD35-4625-BBBB-A9807A8C2E47.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Uptick on the amounts being modelled by the Euro for metro Vancouver. Looks as if it might be caving to the snowier GFS and GEM solutions.

Edit: posted the wrong map, corrected it.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7423600.png.5131448003ae6384725224f35024a1c5.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Interesting take on next week from the euro.

D21C5B6B-AD35-4625-BBBB-A9807A8C2E47.png

I’m in the purple!

[tyweather]

Looks like the GFS, GEM, RGEM and NAM are calling for about 25 cm for Surrey by Sunday mid day.

[PortKells]

I’m in the purple!

So is my work….#snowday

[Monty]

That graph shows most likely 15-25 cm in Pitt Meadows by the end of Sunday. Like I say though, with compaction and melting you probably have less depth.

Could be. The front is weakening a bit on approach and the air is initially quite dry. But 20cm isn’t out of the question.

[PortKells]

Jr! 1951!

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1677153600-1677823200-1678147200-10.gif

[Glacier]

A bit chilly this morning in BC. Even down below -32 in the very southern parts of the province (Fernie)...

feb232023.png

[wetcoast91]

You don't think 20+ notf?

I think we will see lower ratios due to the moderation prior to the precip. Some areas could see 15cm but 10cm seems like a good guess.

Someone call the cops this guy said the "H" WORD!!!

Hells Gate?

[AbbyJr]

Could be. The front is weakening a bit on approach and the air is initially quite dry. But 20cm isn’t out of the question.

I think 10-20cm region wide is probably a good guess at this point. The Euro often underestimates precipitation totals whereas the GEM will often overdo it. A middle ground conservative approach is best.

[tyweather]

10 day snowfall comparison

Euro


GEM


GFS

[PortKells]

Bonkers

ecmwf-ensemble-CWMM-indiv_snow-7153600.png

ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_snow-7153600.png

ecmwf-ensemble-CWHC-indiv_snow-7153600.png

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Snow for San Francisco and San Jose?]

First ever blizzard warnings issued for California

Heard on the news last night first blizzard warning in 30 years. might want to research if so.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Bonkers

ecmwf-ensemble-CWMM-indiv_snow-7153600.png
ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_snow-7153600.png
ecmwf-ensemble-CWHC-indiv_snow-7153600.png

Encouraging to see the Euro cave to the snowier models instead of the other way 'round.

This is making me feel a lot like the lead-in to February 2019 when I was living near Seattle. Right now we are at that stage where we are exiting clown range yet the models are sticking to super-snowy solutions more than ever. Not quite yet to the point where I will conclude they are probably correct, but the possibility of it being more than just model artifacts is becoming more and more likely with each run.

If, tomorrow afternoon, these model trends are holding, it will be time to get excited.