March 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

The 3km models are the plausible ones, due to their resolution.

hrrr-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-3169200.png

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And they show a chance for a slushy dusting that melts within an hour or two of falling/sunup tomorrow morning. And probably a better chance of just flakes in the air or cold rain.

Which is usually the most that March lowland snow ends up being. Not a snowstorm.

And yeah, some show more after that. But the accuracy of the mesoscale models is in my experience total crap once you get more than about 24 hours out. Let's what they're saying about Wednesday morning at this time tomorrow.

[wetcoast91]

Yeah I'm trying to keep a close eye on ground temps. It's very hard to get snow to stick in March. You can have a pretty nice snowfall and not accumulate much in the middle of the day. Generally it looks like ground temps would be just above freezing, 1C or 2C. So not necessarily ideal but not impossible either, depending on the dynamics of the system bringing cold air to the surface.

There's really no presense of arctic air or any offshore component that will drop surface temps to below freezing. March 2002 had arctic air seepage and a strong offshore flow deliver major snows to the South Coast.

Many of the other bigger slushfalls have occured with strong precip rates over a long duration.

Models keep depicting scattered showers with varying intensity. Solar radiation is a big time snow killer and we are going to see lots of sunbreaks the next 48 hours between precip.

[Leighbugs]

Currently having snow pellets here. 3 C.
Most snow I've seen this winter and it's in March, go figure.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

King bird!!!

[Hawk]

was snowing in Maple Ridge
#anotherroundofvictories

[PortKells]

There's really no presense of arctic air or any offshore component that will drop surface temps to below freezing. March 2002 had arctic air seepage and a strong offshore flow deliver major snows to the South Coast.

Many of the other bigger slushfalls have occured with strong precip rates over a long duration.

Models keep depicting scattered showers with varying intensity. Solar radiation is a big time snow killer and we are going to see lots of sunbreaks the next 48 hours between precip.

Very true. We even had an arctic component in early March 2017 and it really didn't accumulate much during the day. It either has to be at night or a true arctic blast with an extremely cold surface and heavy cloud cover.

Oh well, I'm heading up to the hill on Thursday, hope some other folks manage to get up there for basically the dump of the season.

Edit: Also, what's with Ucluelet and Tofino modelled to get actually a pretty good snowfall? You'd think that being more exposed to the pacific they would do worse than us in this setup.

[Typeing3]

Edit: Also, what's with Ucluelet and Tofino modelled to get actually a pretty good snowfall? You'd think that being more exposed to the pacific they would do worse than us in this setup.

No rainshadow for them in these setups. 850mb temps support sea level snow with any waves of precip that come off the ocean from the W/NW.

Similar to Port Hardy, Bella Bella, Haida Gwaii and Prince Rupert further north.

[wetcoast91]

No rainshadow for them in these setups. 850mb temps support sea level snow with any waves of precip that come off the ocean from the W/NW.

Similar to Port Hardy, Bella Bella, Haida Gwaii and Prince Rupert further north.

Yup. Better adiabatic cooling along Coastal sections in these setups. We are outside the cold season as well. Diurnal heating is more pronounced along inland sections of the coast.

[PortKells]

I just can't not post it. I know it's bunk. But

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[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Very true. We even had an arctic component in early March 2017 and it really didn't accumulate much during the day. It either has to be at night or a true arctic blast with an extremely cold surface and heavy cloud cover.

Oh well, I'm heading up to the hill on Thursday, hope some other folks manage to get up there for basically the dump of the season.

Edit: Also, what's with Ucluelet and Tofino modelled to get actually a pretty good snowfall? You'd think that being more exposed to the pacific they would do worse than us in this setup.

1. It is March, the cursed month.
2. I do not live in Tofino or Ucluelet, therefore significant snow is allowed there.

You thought I was joking when I posted a few weeks ago that the coast had a better chance than we did? Told you so. Easiest call ever.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I just can't not post it. I know it's bunk. But


gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-3662400.png

Holy cow it's coming John.

[Typeing3]

Hail shower passing through east Coquitlam. Currently 5.5c.

[Typeing3]

was snowing in Maple Ridge
#anotherroundofvictories

#MoreVictories tonight and tomorrow?

[Storm]

will most likely be issued tonight.

SWS in effect.

Low-Elevation Snowfall for South Coast

When:
- Tuesday morning: Widespread risk.
- Wednesday morning: Local risk over higher terrain and inland sections.

What:
- Trace to 4 cm for areas near sea level.
- Near or possibly exceeding 5 cm over higher terrain including the Malahat Highway, inland areas of Vancouver Island, and the North Shore on the Mainland.
- The Sea to Sky Highway north of Squamish and including Whistler is forecast to receive 5 to 15 cm by Tuesday evening.

Hazards:
- Potential for challenging driving conditions. Allow extra time for travel.
- Prepare for sudden reduction in visibility in heavy flurries.

Remarks: A cold, unstable air mass is bringing a risk of snow down to sea level. Accumulations will be highly variable over short distances and will impact the Tuesday morning commute.
North of Squamish, precipitation is likely to remain as snow throughout the day on Tuesday and Tuesday evening, generating higher total snowfall accumulations for the Sea to Sky Highway and Whistler. Inland areas, especially higher elevation roads of Vancouver Island are also at risk of wet flurries and additional accumulations continuing Tuesday afternoon.

The risk of flurries returns Wednesday morning but is likely to be confined to neighbourhoods and roadways over higher terrain.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to BCstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #BCStorm.

[Typeing3]

1. It is March, the cursed month.
2. I do not live in Tofino or Ucluelet, therefore significant snow is allowed there.

You thought I was joking when I posted a few weeks ago that the coast had a better chance than we did? Told you so. Easiest call ever.

Perhaps a surprise incoming tonight and tomorrow!