December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

[AbbyJr]

Major snowstorm Monday on the 12Z GFS.

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera-1286800.png

[Storm]

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... 91/photo/1

To add to that.
https://twitter.com/wx_washington/statu ... p-cgQ&s=19

[wetcoast91]

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... 91/photo/1

No freeing rain?

Guess it's time for more oppressive snow.

[Storm]

Major snowstorm Monday on the 12Z GFS.

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera-1286800.png

This is not even range anymore.

[wetcoast91]

Major snowstorm Monday on the 12Z GFS.

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera-1286800.png

TERRAIN
BLEED.

[AbbyJr]

TERRAIN
BLEED.

gfs-ensemble-all-CYXX-indiv_snow_24-0930400.png

[PortKells]

TERRAIN
BLEED.

200 cm for new Westminster.

[Typeing3]

Currently -5.0c, dp -8.8c.

Had a low of -10.3c earlier this morning.

[wetcoast91]

Would be reallly nervous to be a resident of Squamish. 100+cm potentially in a 30-36 hour period. There may be varying snow consistencies (wetter heavier snow)despite colder surface temps. Winds will be another issue.

I have a feeling this may be BC's next state of emergency.

No gradual melt anytime soon. You worry what a potential AR event would do to that region.

[John]

Would be reallly nervous to be a resident of Squamish. 100+cm potentially in a 30-36 hour period. There may be varying snow consistencies (wetter heavier snow)despite colder surface temps. Winds will be another issue.

I have a feeling this may be BC's next state of emergency.

No gradual melt anytime soon. You worry what a potential AR event would do to that region.

I could see the same for Abby east you?

[Weather101]

It’s going to be interesting to see which aspect of the models prevails: the recent proclivity to get precipitation type wrong (as if water somehow freezes at +2°C), or their longstanding proclivity to underestimate the tenacity of low-level cold.

I think a measure of caution is the best forecast, i.e. the metro area could possibly see up to 10 cm at lower elevations before it finally transitions. Don’t really get the feeling that forecasting a widespread 20–40 cm would in any way verify (maybe for Pornoman and the Westwood Plateau, but not in general).

There’s no way sea level is getting 20cm. Maybe 5? I’m just not confident. We definitely will warm up here Sunday morning.

20-40 cm is really asking a lot.

[John]

Euro initiating colder….

[wetcoast91]

I could see the same for Abby east you?

Tough to say. That front really kicks up the SE/S winds prior to the arrival of moisture.

[Storm]

Nito is getting nervous.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf_mm.ca_w.png

[Storm]

Regardless of outcome this will be very interesting to see how it goes from weather prospective