January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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wetcoast91
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Storm wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2025 6:37 pm NAM is a bit quicker with the push of cold air. namconus_T850_nwus_fh60_trend.gif
I'm stumped. If this isn't terrain bleed then it shows 10-20cm of wet snow. It has that North of the Fraser signal.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2025 6:47 pm I'm stumped. If this isn't terrain bleed then it shows 10-20cm of wet snow. It has that North of the Fraser signal.
Probably terrain bleed. 925mb temps spike to +3c by Friday morning.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2025 6:56 pm Probably terrain bleed. 925mb temps spike to +3c by Friday morning.
Thursday - Thursday Night is ~ - 1c
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Storm wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2025 7:13 pm Thursday - Thursday Night is ~ - 1c
Yeah temps rise after the precip departs.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2025 7:15 pm Yeah temps rise after the precip departs.
It's closer than I would've thought.
nam-218-all-vancouverski-t925-8303200.png
nam-218-all-vancouverski-instant_ptype_3hr_mm-8303200.png
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

PortKells wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2025 7:25 pm It's closer than I would've thought.

nam-218-all-vancouverski-t925-8303200.pngnam-218-all-vancouverski-instant_ptype_3hr_mm-8303200.png
Worth watching this.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Storm wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2025 7:31 pm Worth watching this.
I definitely want to be cautious about getting people excited when I know this model has issues with things like, well, weather modelling. We'll see if the other models want to move up the timing and give us favourable upper level temps.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

Snow in the forecast!!! :cheerlead: :cheerlead:
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Snow total: 1cm Dec 24, 1cm Feb 19
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Storm wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2025 7:13 pm Thursday - Thursday Night is ~ - 1c
Yup. Definitely potential there. It will be precip intensity dependent, as I think we'll need some dynamic cooling. Surface temps hover around +1c and 925mb temps at -1c. It could surprise some people.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

PortKells wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2025 7:35 pm I definitely want to be cautious about getting people excited when I know this model has issues with things like, well, weather modelling. We'll see if the other models want to move up the timing and give us favourable upper level temps.
what's the RGEM saying?
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Storm wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2025 6:37 pm NAM is a bit quicker with the push of cold air. namconus_T850_nwus_fh60_trend.gif
Unfortunately the NAM is notorious for always being too aggressive when modelling arctic air moving southward at that range. Once it's within 48 hours it's pretty good, however.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2025 7:48 pm Unfortunately the NAM is notorious for always being too aggressive when modelling arctic air moving southward at that range. Once it's within 48 hours it's pretty good, however.
That not the arctic push, the low doesn't push as far North as some runs
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

VanCitySouth wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2025 7:47 pm what's the RGEM saying?
925mb temps of -1 to -2 at precip onset, but they rise to 0 by evening.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Radar »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2025 6:47 pm I'm stumped. If this isn't terrain bleed then it shows 10-20cm of wet snow. It has that North of the Fraser signal.
Image
That's where Hawk prays for the border forcefield to build.

btw, isn't it about now the models are supposed to collapse a bit and show 1-3cm totals?
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2025 7:52 pm 925mb temps of -1 to -2 at precip onset, but they rise to 0 by evening.
GFS is a touch warmer and more realistic but it does show a skiff of snow with 925mb temps at -0.5C. It's worth watching though.
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