November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Roberts Creeker]

Special weather statement out for the south coast.

Nothing here...but that's ok, I don't mind missing out on a rain storm.

[Monty]

Pretty classic looking La Niña pattern shaping up in the mid to long range. Broad North Pacific ridging with a cool western NA and warm along the east coast. Ensembles suggest it persists through mid month at least. Could be an early ski season if we see enough moist rounding the top of the ridge offshore.

[tyweather]

Looks like the heavy rain has led to a landslide in Williams Lake.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british- ... -1.5785637

[Storm]

Pretty classic looking La Niña pattern shaping up in the mid to long range. Broad North Pacific ridging with a cool western NA and warm along the east coast. Ensembles suggest it persists through mid month at least. Could be an early ski season if we see enough moist rounding the top of the ridge offshore.

Very wet next week and then very dry with chilly surface temperatures. Sounds ok with me.

No early ski season though.

Conflicting reports.

[Mattman]

Wasn't a fan of November ridging... until we had three kids age three and under. They need to get outside. Took the oldest two to Heritage Park here in Mission for three hours to kill time today. Beautiful. However, welcoming the pattern change.

[Monty]

A bit early to put much stock in it but the GFS has been bullish with a SW surge of wind late Wednesday. If those winds at 925mb mix down to the surface, we could see gusts 80kmh+ The numbers below are YYJ

F4226E69-4540-4377-8904-A7E5BCB836A8.jpeg

[Monty]

0z GFS looks a little cooler with the trough later next week.

[arbetrader]

Wasn't a fan of November ridging... until we had three kids age three and under. They need to get outside. Took the oldest two to Heritage Park here in Mission for three hours to kill time today. Beautiful. However, welcoming the pattern change.

Awesome! I spent the last 2 days fishing up the coquihalla. Weather was equally as fantastic. I've never had a November sunburn but I can finally put that record to rest lol

[Monty]

Awesome! I spent the last 2 days fishing up the coquihalla. Weather was equally as fantastic. I've never had a November sunburn but I can finally put that record to rest lol

Lake or river? Catch anything?

[AbbyJr]

A bit early to put much stock in it but the GFS has been bullish with a SW surge of wind late Wednesday. If those winds at 925mb mix down to the surface, we could see gusts 80kmh+ The numbers below are YYJ

F4226E69-4540-4377-8904-A7E5BCB836A8.jpeg

October 2003 redux on Tuesday? RGEM for Abbotsford:

Screen Shot 2020-11-01 at 10.23.54 PM.png

[Monty]

October 2003 redux on Tuesday? RGEM for Abbotsford:

Screen Shot 2020-11-01 at 10.23.54 PM.png

No chance that comes anywhere near 2003 for most locations

[VanCitySouth]

October 2003 redux on Tuesday? RGEM for Abbotsford:

Screen Shot 2020-11-01 at 10.23.54 PM.png

RGEM is in my experience almost always far too wet for the lowlands. It suggests 120 mm for YVR on Tuesday, which is about 4 times as much as everyone else.

[Typeing3]

Looks a bit backdoorish late next weekend.

[AbbyJr]

RGEM is in my experience almost always far too wet for the lowlands. It suggests 120 mm for YVR on Tuesday, which is about 4 times as much as everyone else.

Depends on the model elevation. I've found the RGEM fairly accurate for Abbotsford.

[AbbyJr]

No chance that comes anywhere near 2003 for most locations

Do you think the model is way overdoing the precipitation totals?