January 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[Bonovox]

Happy New Year, gang.

With the SSW timing and signs of jet suppression in a couple of weeks, I’m beginning to feel optimistic again about late January.

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (72).png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (73).png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (74).png

[Typeing3]

20230102013145-697de706f1e9ad7ed90ce8ddccdad873c1210339.png

[Typeing3]

Next 15-16 days total precip on the ensembles

12z GEFS (GFS ensembles)

gfs-ens_apcpn_wus_64.png

12z EPS (ECMWF ensembles)

eps_apcpn_wus_60.png

12z GEPS (GEM ensembles)

gem-ens_apcpn_wus_64.png

[Typeing3]

https://twitter.com/commoditywx/status/ ... 5423143939
https://twitter.com/commoditywx/status/ ... 6744293376
https://twitter.com/commoditywx/status/ ... 2765690880
https://twitter.com/commoditywx/status/ ... 7408224261
https://twitter.com/commoditywx/status/ ... 7497848834
https://twitter.com/commoditywx/status/ ... 8667705345

[Typeing3]

https://mobile.twitter.com/50ShadesofVa ... 7502966785

[Mattman]

Happy new year, one and all.

We loaded up the Griswald family truckster (aka the '19 Grand Caravan) and drove to Kelowna on the 26th-- when the freezing level rose with lots of mountain rain. My conclusion is that when they say to "avoid non-essential travel" that's an excuse for poor maintenance. The highways were fine except for: 1. maintenance crews don't even bother clearing passing lanes; 2. they weren't proactive in clearing snow for drainage. We drove through some ponds, not puddles. I was afraid the van would stall. At one point I tried to pass a slow-moving big rig. The uncleared passing lane was pure slush--the worst type of highway condition. It yanked the van to one side. We almost bit it. If they would have cleared a passing lane and would have cleared for drainage prior to the big thaw--one pass with the plow and a couple of guys clearing for drainage the night before-- no need at all for the travel advisory. Relatively simple items to address. On the way back yesterday, it was about 24 hours since the last snowfall on the Coq. However, they again didn't bother with clearing a passing lane. Going down Snowshed Hill, what should have been three lanes southbound was only one passable lane.

I won't end on a gripping note. The provincial government delaying the bid for permanent repairs notwithstanding, the repair to the Coq is impressive.

[Catnip]

Extended GEFS from last night showing the coldest anomalies in the West for the end of Jan/#beginningofFEB

15-20.png

20-25.png

25-30.png

30-35.png

25-30t.png

30-35t.png

[Catnip]

It appears that the PNA may go negative after mid-January. Thinking the GFS/GEFS are a bit too quick but most model suites are hinting at this.

PNA EPS.png

PNA GEFS.png

PNA GFS.png

[wetcoast91]

Extended GEFS from last night showing the coldest anomalies in the West for the end of Jan/#beginningofFEB

15-20.png
20-25.png
25-30.png
30-35.png
25-30t.png
30-35t.png

Locked into a mildish January now. Not T3 approved Feb looks to be 100% Catnip approved.

[Canada Goose]

https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/stat ... NCZAfuvANQ

https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/stat ... NCZAfuvANQ

[PortKells]

Not quite enough blocking but maybe a precursor to something late January?

eps_z500a_namer_61 (1).png

[PortKells]

https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/stat ... NCZAfuvANQ

https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/stat ... NCZAfuvANQ

October was the most extreme month. What an insane month that was, the first couple weeks anyways. I spent them on the beach up at the Sunshine Coast. Constantly going in and out of the ocean just to cool down.

[Canada Goose]

October was the most extreme month. What an insane month that was, the first couple weeks anyways. I spent them on the beach up at the Sunshine Coast. Constantly going in and out of the ocean just to cool down.

ZERO mm from Oct. 1 to Oct. 20.
0.2 mm from Sept. 17 to Oct. 20.
3rd Driest July-Sept.
Driest July 1st to Oct. 20.

[stuffradio]

tes1234!