Fall/Winter 2025/2026 Discussions & Predictions

[Typeing3]

Winter Cancel?

Move the pattern 1,000km west!

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Move the pattern 1,000km west!

Probably best to cancel now won't get hopes up.

[tyweather]

We have now an unusually strong polar vortex at the surface over the North Pole for this time of year - so unusual it could be mistaken for a mid latitude cyclone at first glance. Simultaneously we have colossul sea surface temperature spikes in the growing ice free area of the Arctic Ocean. Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for the date (SSTAs) now exceed + 12.6 C (+ 23 F) - by far the highest ever recorded in the open ocean anywhere in the world. Mid latitude winter time cyclones are increasingly occasionally tracking far enough poleward (due to continuing massively disparate warming of the Arctic) to hasten the break up and melt of much of the remaining thinner Arctic sea ice with ever greater speed.

The record mega marine heat wave now encompassing the entire width of the North Pacific (the sole exception being the immediate offshore waters along the Pacific Coast of North America due to upwelling) with SSTAs for the date of about + 4 degrees C (+ 7 degrees F) to over + 6 C (+ 11 F) will likely create ferocious cyclones in the NE Pacific by next month, shifting south and east as winter sets in. Why doesn’t this show up in official long range predictions? Simple. The models don’t incorporate marine heat waves.

We could see record surface wind speeds and precipitation amounts in parts of western North America, and severe weather wilding and whiplash with shockingly large swings in temperature in the central and eastern U.S. as the polar vortex further deforms massively in response to further accelerating disparate warming of the Arctic.

This past winter and spring, surface air temperatures averaged + 10 to + 15 degrees C (+ 18 to + 27 F) above average for the date for 3 months running in the Arctic. The resulting shredding of the polar jet stream, increasingly meridional air flow, and massive deformation of the polar vortex led to a huge increase in severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, large hail events, and record flooding in the U.S. and a record setting Gulf Coast blizzard.

[Canada Goose]

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[stuffradio]

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Throw it out.

[Bonovox]

The WxBell preliminary Winter forecast.

[Typeing3]

The WxBell preliminary Winter forecast.

Having 2014-15 and 2016-17 in the same group of analogues definitely is a choice.

[Catnip]

NWS just came out with their monthly outlook.

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[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

NWS just came out with their monthly outlook.



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l guess may as well be excited now until it changes next month. it's currently 22c @ the lake in Harrison the question will be can a sardines co exist with a sasquash. stay tuned for some great adventures with sardine man in Harrison HotSprings.

[stuffradio]

Winter un-cancel!

[Hawk]

NWS just came out with their monthly outlook.



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colder than normal. Lock it in! I've seen this movie before though

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Winter un-cancel!

Appears to be like groundhog day every year every forecast is different kinda like something for everyone. at least by the end of the movie someone is happy.

[stuffradio]

Appears to be like groundhog day every year every forecast is different kinda like something for everyone. at least by the end of the movie someone is happy.

Go someone!

[Catnip]

colder than normal. Lock it in! I've seen this movie before though

Yup!

They have been consistently showing it below normal in their last few updates though (comes out once a month).

But ya, who knows.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Oh no l don't know what to believe.

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