September 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

[Canada Goose]

Ya, rained/drizzled for about 1/2 hr maybe?

.3 mm imby.

3 to 9 mm in Coquitlam so far.

[Canada Goose]

Neutral or possibly a weak La Niña. The QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) has also moved into the negative (easterly phase) and assuming it stays that way, the polar vortex will likely be weak resulting in a higher chance of a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming.) These warming events usually send the arctic air somewhere into the lower latitudes. Even without a SSW event, a weaker polar vortex still favours arctic air reaching the lower latitudes. While there are never any guarantees, I'd expect an increased chance of an arctic air outbreak here this winter with a weak polar vortex and or SSW event. It does seem like SSW's have been favouring the west for arctic air as of recent. But any winter forecast is an educated guess at best.

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image - 2025-09-14.png

12z ECWMF ensembles:

ens_image - 2025-09-14T.png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image - 2025-09-14T1.png

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

20250915002456-bbe22abadf3972d22544e07390b5b2ddd1378b81.png

20250915002446-764cabfec5bc4bca6261fb4c8e34ff0ba0a4fc5c.png

[Hawk]

Light rain here most of today it hasn’t really stopped. The grasses are happy.

[Typeing3]

All models seem to be in general agreement... rainy season begins in about 7-8 days. Pretty much bang on with astronomical fall!

[stuffradio]

I drove to Maple Ridge today and it was pouring at times.

[AbbyJr]

All models seem to be in general agreement... rainy season begins in about 7-8 days. Pretty much bang on with astronomical fall!

Looks like one more day of heat and humidity on Tuesday and that's likely it for this summer. I'm fine with that. Let's bring on the fall storms.

[Hawk]

EC is going all in for a Humidex of 33c tomorrow for Abby

[Hawk]

Looks like one more day of heat and humidity on Tuesday and that's likely it for this summer. I'm fine with that. Let's bring on the fall storms.

#Bonosturn

[Catnip]

Stormy!

Screenshot 2025-09-15 at 13-55-55 Synoptic Weather.png

Screenshot 2025-09-15 at 13-56-09 Synoptic Weather.png

Screenshot 2025-09-15 at 13-56-59 Synoptic Weather.png

Screenshot 2025-09-15 at 13-58-29 Synoptic Weather.png

[stuffradio]

Stormy!

Screenshot 2025-09-15 at 13-55-55 Synoptic Weather.png
Screenshot 2025-09-15 at 13-56-09 Synoptic Weather.png
Screenshot 2025-09-15 at 13-56-59 Synoptic Weather.png

Screenshot 2025-09-15 at 13-58-29 Synoptic Weather.png

Is there a legend bar you can add?

[stuffradio]

According to this latest model run, it appears a possible ~150mm of rain by October 1? If that verified, that would throw out the narrative of "bone dry September"

gfs_apcpn_nwus_64.png

[Hawk]

According to this latest model run, it appears a possible ~150mm of rain by October 1? If that verified, that would throw out the narrative of "bone dry September"

gfs_apcpn_nwus_64.png

Aka an excellent start to a long chanterelle season

[stuffradio]

Here's the latest

gfs_apcpn_nwus_64.png

[Canada Goose]

Aka an excellent start to a long chanterelle season

I prefer porcini mushrooms.