Winter 2020-2021

[Weather101]

There is no "lucky".

The weather does what it does, and it snows every year, albeit not as much or as often as we would like.

And the notion that we can't, in the future, get good winters like in the 50s/60s anymore is hogwash. It's not like the climate was colder all across the board pre 1990 back to 1800. There were warm decades dispersed throughout the cold decades. But I know that doesn't jive with some ideologies.

I would bet you in our lifetime you won't see a winter like the 50s/60s again with prolonged cold spells and the extreme of it, Sorry.

[Weather101]

When I lived in Seattle I did the numbers and Seattle gets measurable snow in about 85% of its winters (and most of that remaining 15% see flurries at least once). Vancouver (and Bellingham) gets more snow than Seattle, so this figure should be even higher up this way. Odds strongly disfavor a bust winter with no measurable lowland snow at all.

For sure but again most of our snow tends to come in a couple day span. 2 days of heavy snow out of the other 88 days being rain or mild and dry isn't what most people consider winter, That's just our climate. Probably why we love snow so much because it really isn't a given.

[Typeing3]

CFS has gone totally insane. Shows the strongest Nina on record, which would outdo the "big three" super Nina's of 1916-17, 1973-74 or 1988-89.

[stuffradio]

CFS has gone totally insane. Shows the strongest Nina on record, which would outdo the "big three" super Nina's of 1916-17, 1973-74 or 1988-89.

So are we going to have a super Nino in ~2022-2023? What goes down must go up.

[AbbyJr]

CFS has gone totally insane. Shows the strongest Nina on record, which would outdo the "big three" super Nina's of 1916-17, 1973-74 or 1988-89.

Well if that verifies, we won't be able to conduct this upcoming winter forecast based on analogs.

[Typeing3]

So are we going to have a super Nino in ~2022-2023? What goes down must go up.

Doubt it since we just had one back in 2015-16. I don't think we've ever seen two inside one decade.

[Antares]

CFS has gone totally insane. Shows the strongest Nina on record, which would outdo the "big three" super Nina's of 1916-17, 1973-74 or 1988-89.

Just to clarify but by strongest, do you mean the mean line? Or the lines that go below -3?

[Weather101]

Well if that verifies, we won't be able to conduct this upcoming winter forecast based on analogs.

Honest question, Do you think analogs really matter? Maybe to a extent but in the grand schemes of things I don't think they do, Yeah this happened 40 years ago doesn't mean it will happen again. I see analogs get tossed around every year and nothing ever comes of it lol just my opinion.

I find it to just be a cool thing to past time and maybe pick up a trend I just believe the climate has changed to much now.

[Storm]

https://twitter.com/blizzardof96/status ... 10081?s=19

[Typeing3]

Just to clarify but by strongest, do you mean the mean line? Or the lines that go below -3?

The mean line. The DJF trimonthly observations would probably peak at around -2.25c which (to my knowledge) would be the strongest Nina on record.

Regarding the other lines...I've never seen so many members ever go off the chart before.

[AbbyJr]

Honest question, Do you think analogs really matter? Maybe to a extent but in the grand schemes of things I don't think they do, Yeah this happened 40 years ago doesn't mean it will happen again. I see analogs get tossed around every year and nothing ever comes of it lol just my opinion.

I find it to just be a cool thing to past time and maybe pick up a trend I just believe the climate has changed to much now.

I think analogs are useful as a guide but they shouldn't be used to make a winter forecast in and of themselves. Other factors should also be considered.

[Weather101]

I think analogs are useful as a guide but they shouldn't be used to make a winter forecast in and of themselves. Other factors should also be considered.

Fair enough, Just was curious on your opinion.

[Typeing3]

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[PortKells]

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I love how these maps are just constantly red all over the place. Our new normal is so much fun.

[Weather101]

I love how these maps are just constantly red all over the place. Our new normal is so much fun.

New climate