February 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

It looks like it will be snow out here. It's noon and I'm still 0C with a dew point of -7C. The system will be too weak to warm us up very much.

That's a big temperature drop from yesterday when it was +7C at this time. It was 1.2C here at midnight, might be my high for the day.

0C and -7C? So the surface temperature would drop a bit more if moisture moved in right?

[Willoughby]

Today it feels a lot different (colder) than yesterday.

Conditions are markedly different than the mixed precip event last Thursday/Friday.
I’d be willing to bet this is all snow to sea level and EC revises for this later today.
Won’t be that heavy, but won’t be rain either.

[AbbyJr]

Conditions are markedly different than the mixed precip event last Thursday/Friday.
I’d be willing to bet this is all snow to sea level and EC revises for this later today.
Won’t be that heavy, but won’t be rain either.

HRDPS shows 15cm for the valley.

[Abby_wx]

0C and -7C? So the surface temperature would drop a bit more if moisture moved in right?

Yep! It's just too bad this system isn't packing a bit more moisture, but then it might warm us up too much. I guess it's better to have a weaker system and stay as snow the entire time.

[AbbyJr]

Yep! It's just too bad this system isn't packing a bit more moisture, but then it might warm us up too much. I guess it's better to have a weaker system and stay as snow the entire time.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but our bigger dumps of snow often come with weaker systems, because it prevents the quick transition to rain.
What do you think of the HRDPS showing 15cm? Seems a bit high but interesting to see the high resolution model showing it.

[Canuck]

So EC says 2-5 cm for the LML but that is assuming it becomes mixed with rain. If it does not mix with rain, I wonder what we can expect.

[Canada Goose]

5 cm in Coquitlam?

[Abby_wx]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but our bigger dumps of snow often come with weaker systems, because it prevents the quick transition to rain.
What do you think of the HRDPS showing 15cm? Seems a bit high but interesting to see the high resolution model showing it.

You're not wrong - it does seem that way.

But I agree that seems a bit high. I'll go with 8 to 12 cm as a compromise.

Then again, the models were showing similar amounts last Sunday and we had some places receive more than 30 cm. You just don't know what could happen.

[Monty]

Shawnigan lake. 10-15 flakes if we're lucky

Metro Van lower elevations 2-5cm
Metro Van higher elevations 4-8cm
Western valley. 4-8cm
Central and eastern valley 5-15cm.

[Catnip]

5 cm in Coquitlam?

Sound familiar?

[Bonovox]

12Z HRDPS.

[Abby_wx]

Here's the 1.33 km WRF 48 hour precipation and snowfall.

The blue represents 8 to 16 mm of precipitation. The snowfall map isn't showing much of anything, though. Do your own snowfall conversions based on the precip, expected water equivalent, and whether you expect it to remain as snow the entire time.

[PortKells]

#teamhrdps

[Catnip]

#teamwhatevermodelshowssnow

[Storm]

#teamwhatevermodelshowssnow

too many teams now.