November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

500hgt_comp_18gfs814.gif

Other than 1998-99, every winter on that list was great.

[PortKells]

Other than 1998-99, every winter on that list was great.

I don't know how valuable these kinds of analog maps are for predicting weather patterns but even if it's a small amount that's a jaw dropping list to look at.

[Typeing3]

I don't know how valuable these kinds of analog maps are for predicting weather patterns but even if it's a small amount that's a jaw dropping list to look at.

Oh for sure. In particular all 3 snowiest Decembers on record at YVR are on that list.

'84-85 and '92-93 were like '16-17 with long cool/dry stretches with snow on the ground for well over a month, except featured at least one classic arctic blast each. Something that '16-17 sorely lacked.

[PortKells]

Oh for sure. In particular all 3 snowiest Decembers on record at YVR are on that list.

'84-85 and '92-93 were like '16-17 with long cool/dry stretches with snow on the ground for well over a month, except featured at least one classic arctic blast each. Something that '16-17 sorely lacked.

Did 84 and 92 feature extremely wet sep-nov periods?

[Typeing3]

Did 84 and 92 feature extremely wet sep-nov periods?

Sep 84 was dry, Oct was average and Nov was wet. We also had a relatively significant arctic blast at the end of October 84.

92 leaned on the drier side.

[Canada Goose]

Did 84 and 92 feature extremely wet sep-nov periods?

SON 1984 in YVR: 406.1 mm
SON 1992 in YVR: 319.6 mm

81-10 normal: 361.1 mm
91-20 normal: 358.4 mm

[Catnip]

https://twitter.com/scottseattlewx/stat ... 92551?s=21

[Typeing3]

Out of all the years on that analogue list, I'd say 1971 would be the closest match for a wet September-November period.

[Canada Goose]

Out of all the years on that analogue list, I'd say 1971 would be the closest match for a wet September-November period.

Note that SON 2021 will be the wettest SON ever in Vancouver. By far.

[AbbyJr]

Out of all the years on that analogue list, I'd say 1971 would be the closest match for a wet September-November period.

1990/91 is a good analog in terms of a wet November. But maybe wishing for a December 1990 and January 1991 repeat is asking too much.

[Catnip]

Just use 2021 as the analogue.

#yearofextremes

[Typeing3]

Note that SON 2021 will be the wettest SON ever in Vancouver. By far.

What if you include the Steveston data back to 1896?

Still nothing comes close?

[Storm]

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... p4j-w&s=19

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

https://twitter.com/scottseattlewx/stat ... 92551?s=21

either a slim Jim of warm moist air or a rather large penialtration of cold air.
I must say the maps the last few day's are getting me excited.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

https://twitter.com/ShannonODKOMO/statu ... 6226670592