November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
Post Reply
User avatar
Canada Goose
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 2769
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2019 12:41 pm
Location: Port Coquitlam (Downtown) - Banana Belt
Elevation: 11 m
Has thanked: 917 times
Been thanked: 6236 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Canada Goose »

Typeing3 wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:06 pm What if you include the Steveston data back to 1896?

Still nothing comes close?
Hum, sorry, I only have YVR data on my computer.
User avatar
Rubus_Leucodermis
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 6342
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:48 pm
Location: Vancouver
Elevation: 70 m / 230 ft
Has thanked: 4874 times
Been thanked: 12957 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Forrest Gump wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 5:53 pm 'The Old Farmer John's See What's Brewing Almanac' Is Predicting 'One of the Longest and Coldest' Winters in Years
The weather-brewing booklet has had an 80% accuracy rate for 230 years.

:lol: Just not here , what else is new :cry:
Studies have been done, and actually, the OFA’s accuracy is crap pretty much everywhere.
It's called clown range for a reason.
User avatar
wetcoast91
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 7098
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:12 pm
Location: New Westminster
Elevation: 106m
Has thanked: 6962 times
Been thanked: 16338 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Quite impressive to see how saturated the soil is out near Howe Sound. Now we just need to build up a solid Mountain snowpack and we're good for next summer.

The short, mid and long range looks absolutely terrible for the Mountains and the Fraser Valley. Very mild with intense periodic rain.
Last edited by wetcoast91 on Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Forrest Gump
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4701
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:11 pm
Location: South Surrey/White Rock
Elevation: 377 Ft. or 115 M
Has thanked: 12906 times
Been thanked: 8688 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Forrest Gump »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:22 pm Studies have been done, and actually, the OFA’s accuracy is crap pretty much everywhere.
But , but, but, it says 80% accuracy dating back to the late 1700's ! That's even before John's time. :gramps:
7th Annual Over the Hill Grumpy Old Men Winter Classic
Wrinkle Rock Fish Pulverizers 15cm
South Sardis Stinkin Sardines 3.5cm
User avatar
HarrisonSasquatchWx
Donator
Donator
Posts: 22656
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:37 pm
Location: Harrison Hot Springs B.C.
Has thanked: 60003 times
Been thanked: 19783 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Forrest Gump wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 5:53 pm 'The Old Farmer John's See What's Brewing Almanac' Is Predicting 'One of the Longest and Coldest' Winters in Years
The weather-brewing booklet has had an 80% accuracy rate for 230 years.

:lol: Just not here , what else is new :cry:

Up north in Canada, the season will be all about weathering the storms, which will leave areas "snowed in, sleeted on, slushed about, soaked, and otherwise generally soggy," the guide predicts.

"This coming winter won't be remarkable in terms of temperature, but for our Canadian friends who will end up just wanting to dry out, it will be a long season indeed," Stillman adds.

British Columbia is the only province that will see a mild, dry winter and experience "below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures throughout the season."
:lol: sounds like an El Nito publication.
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
User avatar
HarrisonSasquatchWx
Donator
Donator
Posts: 22656
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:37 pm
Location: Harrison Hot Springs B.C.
Has thanked: 60003 times
Been thanked: 19783 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

My always inaccurate but fun to look at cell weather app. shows snow from the 4th to 7th of Dec.
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
User avatar
tyweather
Model Rider
Model Rider
Posts: 1869
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:39 pm
Location: Newton, Surrey, EL. 70m
Has thanked: 84 times
Been thanked: 4244 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by tyweather »

The clown range sucks tonight. 06 and the 00 were bad today. I guess 50% isn't too bad.
Why not try cycling to work, grocery store, anywhere!
User avatar
HarrisonSasquatchWx
Donator
Donator
Posts: 22656
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:37 pm
Location: Harrison Hot Springs B.C.
Has thanked: 60003 times
Been thanked: 19783 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Should be getting word on the 00Z GooFarSe. :eek: :drunk: :bs:
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
User avatar
HarrisonSasquatchWx
Donator
Donator
Posts: 22656
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:37 pm
Location: Harrison Hot Springs B.C.
Has thanked: 60003 times
Been thanked: 19783 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

tyweather wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:05 pm The clown range sucks tonight. 06 and the 00 were bad today. I guess 50% isn't too bad.
No worries Ty my man there's always tomorrow, starting to feel like last year and the year before and so on. :cryhard:
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
User avatar
wetcoast91
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 7098
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:12 pm
Location: New Westminster
Elevation: 106m
Has thanked: 6962 times
Been thanked: 16338 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

tyweather wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:05 pm The clown range sucks tonight. 06 and the 00 were bad today. I guess 50% isn't too bad.
At least it's dry in the LR with a permanent west coast ridge? Baby steps here.
Coquitlam79
Weather Nut
Weather Nut
Posts: 491
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 6:48 pm
Location: Pipeline road near town centre park, Coquitlam
Has thanked: 70 times
Been thanked: 1130 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Coquitlam79 »

It's looking like the Sea to Sky region and the Sunshine coast are going to take the brunt of these next 3 atmospheric rivers. Cliff Mass said "there's going to be flooding".
Coquitlam79
Weather Nut
Weather Nut
Posts: 491
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 6:48 pm
Location: Pipeline road near town centre park, Coquitlam
Has thanked: 70 times
Been thanked: 1130 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Coquitlam79 »

wetcoast91 wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:14 pm At least it's dry in the LR with a permanent west coast ridge? Baby steps here.
Not bad. Could mean lots of snow in the mountains. And I'm still thinking they'll be a ridgy period in December at some point! Like 1999, 2001, or more recently 2011. Could come around Xmas as if often does.
814prcp.new-2.gif
814temp.new-1.gif
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
wetcoast91
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 7098
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:12 pm
Location: New Westminster
Elevation: 106m
Has thanked: 6962 times
Been thanked: 16338 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Coquitlam79 wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:27 pm It's looking like the Sea to Sky region and the Sunshine coast are going to take the brunt of these next 3 atmospheric rivers. Cliff Mass said "there's going to be flooding".
00Z GFS looked a bit more positive with the weekend AR mostly impacting Northern Vancouver Island and the Central Coast.

Unfortunately the models are introducing another AR next Tues/Wednesday. :tiredos:
User avatar
Catnip
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 10709
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:01 pm
Location: Coquitlam (Mundy Park)
Elevation: 530ft
Has thanked: 12935 times
Been thanked: 24059 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

wetcoast91 wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:34 pm 00Z GFS looked a bit more positive with the weekend AR mostly impacting Northern Vancouver Island and the Central Coast.

Unfortunately the models are introducing another AR next Tues/Wednesday. :tiredos:
#patternlock

:thumbdown:
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2025-2026 Snowfall - ZERO.OOcm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
User avatar
AbbyJr
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 6605
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:14 pm
Location: Abbotsford
Elevation: 50m(164ft)
Has thanked: 12858 times
Been thanked: 12306 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Don't worry, we're all in this together. :ghug:
gem-all-vancouverski-precip_48hr_inch-8435600.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Central Abbotsford
50m (164ft)

2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

:team: :snowwindow: :snowman:
Post Reply