December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

[AbbyJr]

I'm starting to think the Fraser Valley could see damaging outflow winds next week with the arctic front. Just insane to see the Euro show a 1061mb high in the BC Interior. Extremely cold wind chill values if this were to verify.

Wednesday December 21st at 10:00 AM:

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[Storm]

Bah. Slight shifts is always how it starts. We all WANT to believe, but there's always going to be a part that's wary. I bet John's just putting up defence mechanisms too.

I said slight shift to the west compared to 18z EPS which shifted to the East, which was a good thing not bad. You people are over thinking this right now. It will get cold.

[Storm]

Control

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[tyweather]

Control
ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-t2m_c_anom-1840000.png

Goodbye Texas power grid.

[Typeing3]

I'm starting to think the Fraser Valley could see damaging outflow winds next week with the arctic front. Just insane to see the Euro show a 1061mb high in the BC Interior. Extremely cold wind chill values if this were to verify.

Wednesday December 21st at 10:00 AM:

ecmwf-deterministic-albertabc-mslp-1645600.png

For comparison's sake, this is the setup that produced peak outflow winds of 113km/hr at YXX. Evening of December 4th, 1956... tight pressure gradient between the low off the west coast of Washington State and the arctic high in northern BC.

1956120506.gif

Different setup than what's shown on the ECMWF currently, where the tight pressure gradient develops primarily due to the anomalously strong arctic high descending from the Yukon into northern and interior BC, as there's no low to our south. That's an additional factor in making the setup look so nutty and extremely unlikely to actually verify. It's just not something we see anymore these days.

[Typeing3]

And here's another one. Morning of December 28th, 1990. Top tier outflow event for the valley... 96km/hr peak winds at YXX. High in the north/interior peaked at approximately 1052hPa during that setup, with the tight pressure gradient just to the north of the weak low that formed along the arctic front during the evening of the 27th.

1990122812.gif

1060hPa+ as shown at face value on the ECMWF would be crazy but a silver lining in regards to outflow winds though, as they would not be in damaging territory in the valley with the YWL-BLI gradient at approximately -20mb, instead of the near -30mb observed in 1956 and 1990.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (45).png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (46).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (47).png

[Typeing3]

20221213085441-c1ff6ad0b8f395998f10dfa85d5ba0b0a496a684.png

[AbbyJr]

For comparison's sake, this is the setup that produced peak outflow winds of 113km/hr at YXX. Evening of December 4th, 1956... tight pressure gradient between the low off the west coast of Washington State and the arctic high in northern BC.
1956120506.gif


Different setup than what's shown on the ECMWF currently, where the tight pressure gradient develops primarily due to the anomalously strong arctic high descending from the Yukon into northern and interior BC, as there's no low to our south. That's an additional factor in making the setup look so nutty and extremely unlikely to actually verify. It's just not something we see anymore these days.

Thanks for the excellent explanation.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Thanks for the excellent explanation.

Ah Tman, February 2019 remember those insane outflow winds thinking first week of February.power went out at work down near Sumas in Abbs.
How strong were those gusts l know it was a Sunday night anyways those vents on the roof that spin for air flow it was completely torn off and it was found the next morning half a block away on Riverside Rd. In Abbs. :and there not light crazy: That night was insane we stayed inside the office once power went out we didn’t know what was flying around the yard. :

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Agree!!

O.k. agree with John.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I wonder why Skooks never posts. I think he did once in the old forum, but it was to scold you SardineMan for always talking about him, lol!

Oh probably Houndy pal, l've learnt over the years on the forum to stay away from ruffling feathers.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Actually l'm really surprised Wpro made an appearance this early typically he waits till 3 or so day's out. it's steady @ 0c egg grogs @ the pond in south Sardis.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I wonder why Skooks never posts. I think he did once in the old forum, but it was to scold you SardineMan for always talking about him, lol!

Could be stage fright some kind of bot, perhaps a oumuamua from beyond earth, forum security guard, but no worries he/she was part of the old forum it's nice to see that
Skooks has returned however at night l kinda feel light l'm being watched when. l'm on the forum.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

All maps courtesy of the AF, Skooks covered me, the 06Z GoofuS run could have grabbed more but no sense wondering to fsr into future.

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