January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

Yes, exactly -- which means I would assume someone on the AF has already mentioned January 1969.

Let me check. Be right back.

Back... and 1969 was mentioned as a possibility this month yesterday. Maybe 1950 will be mentioned soon?

To be honest, I do love the weather enthusiasm on the American forums. I just think some of them set themselves up for disappointment with such high expectations. That said, each to their own. As long as people are having fun with their hobby, it's all good.

[Storm]

EPS now has to hold serve and we are done.

[Catnip]

But it's the Euro. We are not looking at some crazy clown GFS run.

I’ve seen the Euro spit some crazy things out before… and I’d say this is one of those times.

I’d love to be proven wrong though!

[Catnip]

Poor Johnny!

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[AbbyJr]

I’ve seen the Euro spit some crazy things out before… and I’d say this is one of those times.

I’d love to be proven wrong though!

Of course. I was just saying that I put much more stock in what the Euro says than the GFS.

[Catnip]

EPS now has to hold serve and we are done.

Improvements so far!

[Catnip]

Of course. I was just saying that I put much more stock in what the Euro says than the GFS.

Oh ya, I agree! Euro > GFS

Seems like most models jumped on board tonight. Still time For things to change though unfortunately.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Oh ya, I agree! Euro > GFS

Seems like most models jumped on board tonight. Still time For things to change though unfortunately.

Y'all come back now ya hear.

[AbbyJr]

Oh ya, I agree! Euro > GFS

Seems like most models jumped on board tonight. Still time For things to change though unfortunately.

Unfortunately, last minute rug pulls are common around here. But that's all part of model riding.

[Catnip]

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[Storm]

Unfortunately, last minute rug pulls are common around here. But that's all part of model riding.

I don't know about rug pulls, this is pure weather porn. AF are all in a group orgasm. Andrew is going for a shower. Just weird.

[Typeing3]

Saturday afternoon



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AF crew will take this at face value and melt down when the next run shows

[Typeing3]

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Run-to-run consistency =

[Catnip]

Run-to-run consistency =

Ya… all models/ensembles seem to be struggling with this.

[VanCitySouth]

Run-to-run consistency =

That's the odd thing...I'm used to operational being a bit schizo but the ensemble changes tonight are really quite something. I hope it's because they finally resolved how the upper atmospheric pattern change will shake out for the lower levels, instead of just bouncing around because they're still clueless. I think the 12z runs will be telling.