June 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

[Bonovox]

18z GFS.

[Typeing3]

18z GFS.

00z will pull back.

[AbbyJr]

00z will pull back.

I doubt it. The pull back will be Wednesday or Thursday probably. I still have no idea why the GFS has so many issues given its recent upgrades.

[Typeing3]

I doubt it. The pull back will be Wednesday or Thursday probably. I still have no idea why the GFS has so many issues given its recent upgrades.

Good point. I'm trying to remember when it began to pull back with the extreme cold last Feb. Think it was 72hrs out.

[AbbyJr]

Good point. I'm trying to remember when it began to pull back with the extreme cold last Feb. Think it was 72hrs out.

That sounds right. Sounds similar to the when it pulled back during the January 2020 historic cold hype.

[Bonovox]

00z will pull back.

Ordinarily I would agree, but the 500mb pattern being depicted across all of the major models (including the UKMET) suggest we are in for a significant hot spell this weekend. But, you are right, it doesn't necessarily mean it will be historic, but it bears watching.

[Bonovox]

Chris Doyle is pretty conservative as a forecaster.

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... 20228?s=20

[Typeing3]

Ordinarily I would agree, but the 500mb pattern being depicted across all of the major models (including the UKMET) suggest we are in for a significant hot spell this weekend. But, you are right, it doesn't necessarily mean it will be historic, but it bears watching.

Yep, the large scale upper level pattern modeled will likely not shift much as we draw closer to late week/early next week.

As I mentioned in an earlier post today though what generally happens when extreme heat is modeled is instead prolonged (1-2 weeks) moderate heat (~28c-34c) rather than a couple days of quick hitting extreme heat (35c+). I just can't see 25c-30c 850mb temps over three days happening but we'll see.

[Typeing3]

Chris Doyle is pretty conservative as a forecaster.

His next tweet:
https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... 8386428934

[AbbyJr]

Yep, the large scale upper level pattern modeled will likely not shift much as we draw closer to late week/early next week.

As I mentioned in an earlier post today though what generally happens when extreme heat is modeled is instead prolonged (1-2 weeks) moderate heat (~28c-34c) rather than a couple days of quick hitting extreme heat (35c+). I just can't see 25c-30c 850mb temps over three days happening but we'll see.

July 2009 was an example of quick hitting extreme heat. But as you said, those events are rare here, especially in June.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Hit a high of 33.4c in south Sardis, currently still 30.6c @ 8p.m.

[AbbyJr]

Hit a high of 33.4c in south Sardis, currently still 31.6c @ 8p.m.

32C high here. Currently 28C.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Good point. I'm trying to remember when it began to pull back with the extreme cold last Feb. Think it was 72hrs out.

l wouldn't be surprised to see 35c in the central valley 37c or 38c is pushing it IMO.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

18z GFS.

Geesh those maps are looking absolutely scary looks like were on fire.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Woah....didn't expect it to be so busy here this time of the year.....

Hope everyone is enjoying this weather? Me personally... I'm looking forward to winter ❄☃️❄🌨🌨

Any chance we might see some thunderstorms here?

l bet truckerman it's got to be absolutely scorching driving around in these temps, stay hydrated.