Winter 2023-24

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Just checked and the current PDO index as of September is -2.94. I'm not sure if a scale exists to measure the strength of the PDO, but compared to other negative cycles, this looks to be in the strongly negative category.

If it weren't for ENSO, 1956/57 would be an analog to consider for this winter. But probably wishful thinking at best.

That winter featured an arctic blast in December followed by a cold January. The December cold snap was notable due to the heavy snow and damaging winds with the intense arctic front. Outflow winds gusted to 113 km/h and 15.2cm of snow fell on December 4th at YXX.

Interesting enough, that winter came off a double dip La Niña (weak 1954/55 and moderate (1955/56.)

Both 1955/56 and 1956/57 were -PDO cycles but the 1956/57 was a cold neutral ENSO compared to this winters warm positive ENSO.

So to compare:

1956/57 came off of double dip weak and moderate La Nina's followed by a cold neutral neutral and -PDO cycle.

This winter is coming off of triple dip moderate La Nina's followed by a warm positive ENSO and a -PDO.

One thing to note is that 1954/55 was actually a +PDO but it dropped negative for 1955/56 and remained negative during 1956/57. I'm not sure how much if any influence that had on the 1956/57 winter but I'm just noting what I see in the analogs.

To clarify, I'm not suggesting this winter will be a 1956/57 repeat. I'm just making what I consider to be some interesting observations.

1991/92 (which was a pretty awful El Niño winter aside from some late October snow), was a +PDO winter. So cautiously optimistic we will avoid a repeat of that. Still think most areas will struggle to get so much as 30 cm of snow total, but that still leaves room for a nice snowfall or two.

[SouthSardiswx]

1991/92 (which was a pretty awful El Niño winter aside from some late October snow), was a +PDO winter. So cautiously optimistic we will avoid a repeat of that. Still think most areas will struggle to get so much as 30 cm of snow total, but that still leaves room for a nice snowfall or two.

Yeah, your over/under water mark is 30cm Rubes probably best to go with that for your back yard never mind guessing YVR that's a complete joke to have as an official station for Vancouver city.
I can't believe it's used as a measuring stick for the city it's absolutely inaccurate.

[Hawk]

I am moving to Mission this fall. I will be a significantly higher elevation compared to where I am currently. Too bad this winter is looking like a disappointment. But I guess it's too much to ask for my first winter in my new location to be amazing.

tremendous move
Youre finally out of the Abby DonutHole Slush/zr spot.

[VanCitySouth]

Yeah, your over/under water mark is 30cm Rubes probably best to go with that for your back yard never mind guessing YVR that's a complete joke to have as an official station for Vancouver city.
I can't believe it's used as a measuring stick for the city it's absolutely inaccurate.

CBC: Vancouver struggles through first snowfall of the season. ICBC reported 1,700 accidents in a 24 hour span. Vancouver International Airport recorded 2.6 cm of snow.

Rest of Canada: LOL losers

Reality:
Coquitlam (Westwood Plateau) - 31 cm
Coquitlam (Mundy Park) - 19 cm
Burnaby (Metrotown) - 14 cm
Burnaby (SFU) - 27 cm
North Vancouver (Capilano Highlands) - 20 cm
North Surrey (Fraser Heights) - 16 cm
Langley (Willoughby just for you Hawk) - 17 cm
Vancouver (QE Park) - 12 cm

Sorry FV folks I don't know Abby/Chilliwack well enough to include them

[SouthSardiswx]

CBC: Vancouver struggles through first snowfall of the season. ICBC reported 1,700 accidents in a 24 hour span. Vancouver International Airport recorded 2.6 cm of snow.

Rest of Canada: LOL losers

Reality:
Coquitlam (Westwood Plateau) - 31 cm
Coquitlam (Mundy Park) - 19 cm
Burnaby (Metrotown) - 14 cm
Burnaby (SFU) - 27 cm
North Vancouver (Capilano Highlands) - 20 cm
North Surrey (Fraser Heights) - 16 cm
Langley (Willoughby just for you Hawk) - 17 cm
Vancouver (QE Park) - 12 cm

Sorry FV folks I don't know Abby/Chilliwack well enough to include them

What year was this ManwithaVan? It's currently a summer like 24c @ the pond in south Sardis.

[VanCitySouth]

What year was this ManwithaVan? It's currently a summer like 24c @ the pond in south Sardis.

was just hypothetical

[SouthSardiswx]

was just hypothetical

Very realistic indeed for the central valley Abby included the intense outflow would have shredded the moisture so YXX 5.2cm Mission 6.8cm Chilliwack 4.1cm
Hope 2.2cm of course my ranting would have been heard throughout the valley.

[Glacier]

There are so many animals this year. Mice, squirrels, deer, bears, etc. so people keep telling me that the squirrels are really gathering a lot of nuts this year so it's going to be a harsh winter. Personally, it think it's because there are just more animals than normal so it only appears like they are gathering more than normal. As far as I know, animals cannot predict the weather. Well, except for the Groundhog, of course.

[SouthSardiswx]

There are so many animals this year. Mice, squirrels, deer, bears, etc. so people keep telling me that the squirrels are really gathering a lot of nuts this year so it's going to be a harsh winter. Personally, it think it's because there are just more animals than normal so it only appears like they are gathering more than normal. As far as I know, animals cannot predict the weather. Well, except for the Groundhog, of course.

This is true Glace the forest animals will come down to lower elevations if there food source is scarce and wildfires don't help that situation.
I mean when was the last time you saw a bear, mice, squirrels, deer, in one day probably not so l wouldn't believe that myth squirrels are piggys anyway's my mom taught me not to stuff my face. the groundhog is a marketing instrument.

[AbbyJr]

Meteorologist Pete Parsons with the "Oregon Department of Forestry" has released his seasonal forecast for November through January.

Here is a link to his video forecast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0m8jX-4hoA

He maintains the following analogs: 1951/52, 1965/66, and 1972/73.

Here is a monthly break down of the 500 mb pattern based on his analogs:


November:

november.png

December:

december.png

January:

january.png

And here is the the November through January timeframe with his analogs:

november-january.png

To be honest, I agree with him that using computer models is really not a reliable way to conduct a seasonal forecast. Models are great to use in the short to medium range but they become almost useless in the long range, especially with predicting months in advance. It's much better to find analogs that match the current conditions and then make some adjustments to take into account variables such as a warmer climate.

Personally, I think he did a good job and that is forecast is very reasonable. But as I've said before, a seasonal forecast is really just an educated guess at best. As a weather enthusiast, I hope his forecast verifies because there are exciting weather events in all his analogs.

[SouthSardiswx]

Meteorologist Pete Parsons with the "Oregon Department of Forestry" has released his seasonal forecast for November through January.

Here is a link to his video forecast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0m8jX-4hoA

He maintains the following analogs: 1951/52, 1965/66, and 1972/73.

Here is a monthly break down of the 500 mb pattern based on his analogs:


November:

november.png


December:

december.png


January:

january.png


And here is the the November through January timeframe with his analogs:

november-january.png


To be honest, I agree with him that using computer models is really not a reliable way to conduct a seasonal forecast. Models are great to use in the short to medium range but they become almost useless in the long range, especially with predicting months in advance. It's much better to find analogs that match the current conditions and then make some adjustments to take into account variables such as a warmer climate.

Personally, I think he did a good job and that is forecast is very reasonable. But as I've said before, a seasonal forecast is really just an educated guess at best. As a weather enthusiast, I hope his forecast verifies because there are exciting weather events in all his analogs.

Wow nonetheless it sounds promising but who knows if it will come to fruition but you got to have hope Jr. man.

[Hawk]

Meteorologist Pete Parsons with the "Oregon Department of Forestry" has released his seasonal forecast for November through January.

Here is a link to his video forecast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0m8jX-4hoA

He maintains the following analogs: 1951/52, 1965/66, and 1972/73.

Here is a monthly break down of the 500 mb pattern based on his analogs:


November:

november.png


December:

december.png


January:

january.png


And here is the the November through January timeframe with his analogs:

november-january.png


To be honest, I agree with him that using computer models is really not a reliable way to conduct a seasonal forecast. Models are great to use in the short to medium range but they become almost useless in the long range, especially with predicting months in advance. It's much better to find analogs that match the current conditions and then make some adjustments to take into account variables such as a warmer climate.

Personally, I think he did a good job and that is forecast is very reasonable. But as I've said before, a seasonal forecast is really just an educated guess at best. As a weather enthusiast, I hope his forecast verifies because there are exciting weather events in all his analogs.

Would be a dream to see this happen this winter..i dunno Jr

[Hawk]

1991/92 (which was a pretty awful El Niño winter aside from some late October snow), was a +PDO winter. So cautiously optimistic we will avoid a repeat of that. Still think most areas will struggle to get so much as 30 cm of snow total, but that still leaves room for a nice snowfall or two.

Lets think a little more positive Rubes. Nothing has happened..Jr says maybe. Lets shoot for 40-70+cms thanks

[AbbyJr]

Would be a dream to see this happen this winter..i dunno Jr

Sure would be a dream but this forecast is not based on wishful thinking. There is data to suggest something similar to either one or a balance of the stated analogs is possible this upcoming fall and winter.

It should be noted that this doesn't mean an exact repeat of any specific weather event during any of those analogs will happen.

For example, 1965/66 was a pretty epic winter here. Major windstorm in November followed by a significant arctic blast with heavy snow in December and January. Max snow depth at YXX on January 6th, 1966 was 56cm. Would be awesome to see a repeat but we can't get our hopes up for an event that extreme.

Essentially, there is a potential for a more interesting winter than a typical El Niño but there are no guarantees. But I do agree with the seasonal forecasting method Pete Parsons uses. I think starting with analogs and making adjustments from there is the best rather than relying on computer modelling for months in advance.

All we can do is hope for the best but not set our expectations so high that we expect a repeat of the most significant winter event of any given analog.

[AbbyJr]

Wow nonetheless it sounds promising but who knows if it will come to fruition but you got to have hope Jr. man.

We can always hope.