November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Catnip]

00ZNAM

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18ZGFS

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[Catnip]

https://twitter.com/notthat89664058/sta ... 50177?s=19

[Bonovox]

Sunday evening on the 00Z NAM is pretty interesting now.

[Typeing3]

It's definitely one of my favourites although December 1964 is also right up there as a top tier event for me. Outflow winds were even more intense than the 1956 event, with winds gusting to 121 km/h in Abbotsford on December 15th when the arctic front roared in. Although, contrary to 1956, there was no snow with the arctic front. The 1956 event was also much shorter duration than the 1964 event but I'd imagine the heavy snow and strong winds in 1956 created major blizzard conditions.

So we have the two events to compare:

December 1956:
Peak outflow gust of 113 km/h in Abbotsford with heavy snow as the arctic front roared in on December 4th.
Arctic blast duration: 4 days.

December 1964:
Peak outflow gust of 121 km/h in Abbotsford. No snow with the arctic front on December 15th but multiple snowstorms later on during the event.
Arctic blast duration: 12 days.

Both were top tier events but out of the two I would actually pick 1964 since it featured stronger winds and was much longer in duration.

December 1964 was insane. Was similar December 2008, except with a top tier arctic blast added in.

Multiple snowstorms for the BC south coast and Washington with snow on the ground for over a month.

Extremely cold and mostly dry further north up the coast. Had family who lived in Prince Rupert at the time and still remember that... pipes froze all over and the city was at a standstill.

Further to our south in Oregon and northern California... heavy rains and mudslides.

[Bonovox]

Even surface temps 0c over much of the Metro area.

[Storm]

Even surface temps 0c over much of the Metro area.

Dry though. It will be HRRR time to shine

[Catnip]

Sunday evening on the 00Z NAM is pretty interesting now.

Yeah, this run gets colder quicker and also looks to be 1-2 degrees colder.

[Bonovox]

Even surface temps 0c over much of the Metro area.

Problem? The moisture misses us, but that is still a bit early to track.

[Catnip]

Problem? The moisture misses us, but that is still a bit early to track.

#surprises

[Bonovox]

I dont think l've seen El Nino in this state since the great flip in Feb. 2017 when after being out for dinner he came home to the models showing the big snows of Feb 2017, l'll never forget that post from El Neetzy it was on the old forum so many good memories with the old site and some good dust up's lol.

I remember that well.

I wish it was archived somewhere.

[Weather101]

Where you been Weedler l've been subbing for you with tonnes of pessimism l can't hold the troops back even El Neeters is caving.

Working haha im back now tho

[Weather101]

I love the trends

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

It's on right now.

That was a another excellent Q&A no pineapples allowed.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I love the trends

Are u on board now Weeds?

[Slytyguy]

What a great way to start the winter season! Probability of cold and at least some snow very high.

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